长江期货鲜果周报：震荡偏强-20251010

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The overall investment rating for the fresh fruit industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - For apples, new-season late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market with opening prices 0.3 - 1.0 yuan per jin higher than last year. Due to continuous rainy weather during the National Day, the peak listing time is delayed. There is limited high - quality supply in the production areas, and merchants are eager to buy high - quality goods, leading to stable and firm prices. The sales areas perform mediocrely, showing a situation of "hot production areas, cold sales areas". New fruit prices are significantly higher than last year, and prices are expected to remain strong [9] - For red dates, new - season red dates in Xinjiang's main production areas are about to be harvested, possibly one week earlier than last year. Inland merchants have gone to the production areas. The orchard - ordering process in Hotan and Aksu is progressing quickly, but prices are not yet representative. During the National Day, the main sales areas have a flat trading atmosphere, and prices are stable. Due to the expected reduction in new - fruit output, prices are expected to be strong [42] 3. Summary by Directory Apples 3.1.1. Weekly View - New - season late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market with higher opening prices. The peak listing is delayed, and there is a "hot production areas, cold sales areas" situation. New fruit prices are expected to remain strong [9] 3.1.2. Market Review - The main apple contract oscillated with an upward bias this week. The apple basis was - 91 yuan, a decrease of 306 yuan compared to last week [13] 3.1.3. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of September 26, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.77 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram from last week. The wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.28 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.07 yuan per kilogram from last week. The spot price of Fuji apples has been oscillating recently [16] 3.1.4. Main Apple Production Areas - In Shandong, the price of late Fuji is 3 - 3.5 yuan per jin for a small amount of red fruit, and there is no quote for first - and second - grade fruit. The supply is sporadic, and the commodity rate is low this year. After large - scale listing, high - quality fruit prices are expected to be firm with a large price gap [21] - In Shaanxi, the commodity rate is lower than last year. Merchants are observing. The mainstream quote in Luochuan is 3.5 - 4.2 yuan per jin, and the mainstream transaction price is 3.6 - 3.8 yuan per jin, 0.5 - 0.8 yuan per jin higher than last year [21] 3.1.5. Cold Storage Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main national production areas was 6.79 tons. Old - season Fuji inventory will no longer be counted next week, and new - season late Fuji inventory will be reported later [23] 3.1.6. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of arriving trucks in the Guangdong Chalong market fluctuated. The average daily number of arriving trucks from October 3.25 - 9 was about 45.33. The prices of different varieties of apples varied. During the National Day, terminal consumption was slightly slower, and the sales of gift boxes and basket - packed goods were average. The sales of high - quality new - season late Fuji are okay, but there is pressure on daily digestion, and there is some inventory backlog in transit warehouses [28] 3.1.7. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples was 0.3 yuan per jin, the same as last week. Old - season storage profit will no longer be updated [31] 3.1.8. Substitute Price Analysis - As of the 41st week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six types of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.08 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.12 yuan per kilogram compared to the 39th week before the festival. The prices of different fruits fluctuated, and the wholesale price of Fuji apples increased [35] Red Dates 3.2.1. Weekly View - New - season red dates in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, possibly one week earlier. Inland merchants have gone to the production areas. Orchard - ordering in some areas is progressing quickly, but prices are not yet representative. During the National Day, the sales areas had a flat trading atmosphere, and prices were stable. Due to expected production reduction, prices are expected to be strong [42] 3.2.2. Market Review - New - season red dates are about to be harvested, possibly one week earlier. The orchard - ordering process in Hotan and Aksu is progressing quickly, with prices ranging from 5.50 - 8.00 yuan per kilogram, and a small amount of high - quality goods at around 9.00 yuan per kilogram. Since the signed volume is small and the dates have not been harvested, the prices are not representative [45] 3.2.3. Spot Price Trend - In Hebei Cuierzhuang, the number of arriving trucks during the holiday was significantly lower than last year. The market was affected by rain, and the trading atmosphere was average, with prices stable [49] - In the Henan market, the spot price of red dates was stable this week. After the double - festival stocking, the trading atmosphere was average. Inland merchants will go to the production areas soon [49] - In Guangzhou Ruyifang, the average daily number of arriving trucks decreased. The market supply decreased during the holiday, and the trading atmosphere was average, with prices changing little [49] 3.2.4. Inventory Data - The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 93.89%. The sample - point inventory decreased slightly. Pay attention to the circulation of old - season goods and price changes before the new - season harvest [51] 3.2.5. Sales Area Market Profit Analysis - The average purchase price of grey dates in Xinjiang's main production areas in the 2024 production season was 5.33 yuan per kilogram. The first - grade finished - product price in Hebei's sales areas was 9.00 - 9.80 yuan per kilogram. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou was 580 - 610 yuan per ton, and the gross profit was 2.37 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram compared to last week [54]