航运衍生品数据日报-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak long - term. The end - of - year peak season may not materialize as expected due to the double decline in supply and demand in October. The market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and rising bargaining power of shippers" before the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026. The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased, with the second quarter of next year being the first key observation point. The negotiation between Israel and Hamas has created theoretical possibilities for the resumption of Red Sea shipping, but the shipping industry still faces multiple challenges [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is at 1115, down 6.97% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1087, down 2.93%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe all decreased, with declines ranging from 4.89% to 10.76% [5]. - EC Contracts: Prices of most EC contracts decreased, with EC2506 down 13.05% and EC2608 down 10.57%. However, EC2510 increased by 0.84%. The positions of some contracts changed, with EC2606 and EC2608 positions increasing, while EC2410 positions decreased [5]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The 10 - 12 month - to - month spread is - 568.1, up 53.2 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 spread is 282.0, up 192.9; the 12 - 4 spread is 568.1, up 90.4 [5]. Market News - On October 5, 2025, OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The next meeting on December policies will be held on November 2 [5]. - On October 4, Trump said that Israel agreed to a preliminary withdrawal route in Gaza, and a cease - fire would take effect after Hamas' confirmation. A prisoner exchange will also be initiated [6]. - On October 1, the US federal government "shut down" for the first time in nearly 7 years due to the Senate's rejection of the appropriation bill [6]. - On October 4, the Kriskii refinery in Russia's Leningrad Oblast was attacked by drones and caught fire. The fire has been extinguished, and seven drones were destroyed [7]. - On October 1, US media reported that the Trump administration agreed to provide intelligence to Ukraine to support long - range attacks on Russian energy facilities [7]. - The Nikkei 225 index rose 4.8% to 47,944.76 points, and the Topix index rose 3.1%. The yen weakened significantly against the US dollar, breaking through the key level of 150 [7]. EC Market Analysis - Spot Price: In early October, GEMINI prices dropped to 1500, QA to 1500, RA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The overall quoted price range in late October is between 2000 - 2200, and there are rumors of continued price support [8]. - Logic: In late September, shipping companies cut prices to grab cargo, and freight rates dropped to $1300/FEU. In October, supply and demand both decreased, and the market is likely to return to the off - season. Shipping companies' price increase announcements may not be implemented, and key factors to monitor include price increase implementation, peak - season cargo volume, and shipping companies' attitude towards price support [9]. - Strategy: A long - short spread strategy between the 10 - month and 12 - month contracts is recommended [10].