沪胶，偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a rebound after over - decline, but the futures price was under the reverse suppression of the 5 - day moving average, and the short - and medium - term moving averages showed an obvious short - selling trend. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber will continue to run weakly in the future. The bullish expectations at the industrial level are difficult to resist the bearish sentiment in the macro - environment, and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Impact of US Government Shutdown - Due to the failure of the US Senate to pass a new temporary appropriation bill on October 6, the US government shutdown continued. The 35 - day shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 caused a loss of $3 billion to GDP. It is estimated that each week of the current shutdown will reduce the economic growth rate by about 0.15 percentage points, and may reduce it by 0.2 percentage points when the impact on private institutions is included. The shutdown has a major impact on the economy and demand, and drags down the price trend of commodities, which also has a negative impact on Shanghai rubber futures [2] Supply and Demand in the Rubber Market - Supply: Currently, both domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas are in the peak tapping season, especially the Southeast Asian main producing areas. The supply pressure is steadily increasing. In August, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons. From January to August, the total rubber production reached 6.8536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 tons, or 0.96%. Thailand, the world's largest rubber producer, had a total rubber production of 2.8158 million tons in the first 8 months of this year, a year - on - year increase of 81,900 tons, or 3.00%. Its total export volume from January to August was 2.7569 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,600 tons, or 7.85% [4][6] - Demand: Affected by the slowdown of the world economic growth due to the global tariff war, the rubber consumption market has cooled down. In August, the total consumption of ANRPC member countries was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons, or 4.68%. From January to August, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 267,600 tons, or 3.60%. Overall, the rubber market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [8] Impact of Typhoon "Maideme" - Typhoon "Maideme" landed and hit the northern part of Hainan Province and the southwestern part of Guangdong Province in China, which are important rubber - planting areas. It may bring a production reduction expectation, which in turn supports the stabilization of the Shanghai rubber futures price. However, the bullish expectation at the industrial level is difficult to resist the bearish sentiment in the macro - environment [8][9]