尿素早评：向上驱动未现供给压力驱动向下-20251010

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the urea price dropped significantly. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not materialize. Although India issued a new round of tenders during the National Day, the domestic market reaction was limited due to export policy uncertainties. If there is no further change in exports, with the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high - supply pressure, and the urea price may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, since the current urea valuation is low, it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - Futures Prices: On October 9, compared with September 30, UR01 dropped from 1670 yuan/ton to 1609 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton (-3.65%); UR05 dropped from 1717 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.33%); UR09 dropped from 1742 yuan/ton to 1701 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton (-2.35%) [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): In Shandong, it dropped from 1600 yuan/ton to 1560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.50%); in Shanxi, it dropped from 1490 yuan/ton to 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton (-2.01%); in Henan, it dropped from 1590 yuan/ton to 1570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.26%); in Hebei, it dropped from 1640 yuan/ton to 1620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.22%); in Northeast China, it dropped from 1650 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.21%); in Jiangsu, it dropped from 1600 yuan/ton to 1570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton (-1.88%) [1]. - Upstream and Downstream Prices: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong dropped from 2930 yuan/ton to 2900 yuan/ton (-1.02%), and in Henan, it dropped from 2520 yuan/ton to 2500 yuan/ton (-0.79%). The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. b) Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR remained unchanged at - 117 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread decreased from - 47 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [1]. c) Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1604 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1609 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1619 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 310689 lots [1].