隔夜外围资产全部下跌，假后A股割裂式突破：股指期货早报2025.10.10-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight, due to continuous data shortages and increased uncertainty about the future, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, gold, and crude oil all declined. After the holiday, the domestic A-share market had a good start, with the index breaking through the previous oscillation platform with increasing volume. However, individual stocks did not form a resonance, and the market had a fragmented breakthrough. A slow bull market is certain at the index level, but it is currently difficult for individual stocks to make money by tracking the market trend. The strategy is to maintain a long position in the Shanghai 50 Index, and the position of the CSI 1000 can be switched to the CSI 500. In terms of industry sectors, only large-cap stocks should be selected instead of small-cap stocks. Attention should be paid to the technology sector, but the focus should not be overly concentrated on computing power. [3][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The U.S. federal government shutdown led to the non - release of the initial jobless claims on Thursday. Fed officials' remarks indicated a split within the Fed regarding future interest rate cuts. Williams supported further rate cuts due to the slowdown in the labor market, while Barr advocated for caution, and Kashkari agreed with Barr. Overnight, most peripheral assets declined, the U.S. dollar index rose, U.S. Treasury yields increased at both short and long ends, gold fell, the three major U.S. stock indexes declined, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index fell, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated. Geopolitical changes and the Fed's attitude towards rate cuts remain key points to monitor. [1][5] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - After the holiday on Thursday, the market had a good start. The broader market rose 1.32% with a high - opening and oscillating trend, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.73%. The market showed a significant index rebound but a polarization of individual stocks. Benefiting from the rise of overseas gold during the holiday, the cyclical sector rose, and the technology sector was internally divided. The market trend was fragmented. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, steel, coal, and public utilities led the gains, while media, real estate, social services, and automobiles led the losses. There were 3109 rising stocks and 2184 falling stocks in the whole market. Although 100 stocks reached the daily limit, the performance of stocks with consecutive daily limits in the previous trading session was poor, and the profit - making effect was weak. On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials. [2][6] 1.3 Important Information - Fed Officials' Views: Williams supported further rate cuts as the labor market may further slow down; Barr believed rate cuts should be cautious as the current interest rate is moderately restrictive; Kashkari basically agreed with Barr. - U.S. Labor Statistics: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recalled some employees to compile the CPI report, and it is expected to be released during the government shutdown. - International Events: The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement officially took effect. Trump said he would go to Egypt to attend the signing ceremony of the Gaza cease - fire agreement. Japan's LDP President Takashi Hayao stated that there was no intention to cause excessive depreciation of the yen. Li Qiang met with Kim Jong - un at the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang. China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October. The Ministry of Commerce included foreign entities such as anti - drone technology companies in the unreliable entity list. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs implemented export controls on relevant items with obvious dual - use military and civilian attributes, such as some medium - heavy rare earth - related items, lithium battery and artificial graphite anode material - related items. The Ministry of Commerce announced decisions on export controls of rare - earth - related technologies and overseas rare - earth items. [7][11] 1.4 Today's Strategy - The same as the core view mentioned above. [3][12] 2. Futures Market Tracking - Performance: Tables show the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, basis, and other data of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including different contract delivery months such as 2510, 2511, 2512, and 2603. [14] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Tables present the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading amount, trading amount changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly position increases, net positions, and changes in net positions, short - position open interest, and long - position open interest for different futures contracts and their corresponding indexes. [15] 3. Spot Market Tracking - Market Performance: Tables display the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading amounts, price - to - earnings ratios, and their historical quantiles of major indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as various industry sectors. [37] - Market Style Impact: Tables show the impact of market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on the price changes of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions. [38][39] - Valuation and Other Data: Charts show the valuations of important indexes, Shenwan valuations, market average daily trading volume, average daily turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading amount changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect data, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases and their proportions in A - share trading amounts. [41][47] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Charts show the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate levels. [53]