美联储降息后，新兴市场股市何去何从？：——基于四大情景的复盘

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Scenarios - The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on emerging market stocks can be categorized into four scenarios: global monetary policy switching period, stable rate increase/decrease period, global economic recession, and liquidity excess period[1] - In the global monetary policy switching period, market expectations regarding the Fed's hawkish/dovish stance are key, while emerging market economic strength has less impact[1] - During stable rate increase/decrease periods, the sensitivity to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become crucial[1] Group 2: Historical Performance Analysis - Historical analysis from 2008 to 2025 shows that emerging market stocks have varied performance under different monetary policy conditions[2] - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, emerging markets fell by 59.9% during the financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, they rebounded by 92.6% in a liquidity excess period[2] - In the stable rate increase period from February 2016 to January 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 69.0% as global manufacturing PMI improved[2] Group 3: Future Outlook Post-Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, the macro environment is likely entering a monetary policy switching phase, which may exert downward pressure on emerging market stocks[1] - If the Fed's monetary policy expectations do not shift to rate hikes, emerging markets may still perform well despite potential rate cut reversals[1] - The report suggests that the most favorable time for emerging markets may have passed, similar to the period from September to December 2024[1]