宏观研究：假期国内消费平稳增长，海外风险事件频出

Group 1: Domestic Travel Trends - During the National Day holiday, the total cross-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 2.432 billion, with an average of 304 million daily, reflecting a 6.2% increase compared to 2024 and a 331.03% increase compared to 2019[1] - Road travel remains the primary mode of transportation, accounting for 92.56% of total trips, with 198 million road trips recorded, a year-on-year increase of 7.34%[11] - Waterway travel has seen a significant increase, with 10.05% growth year-on-year, totaling 10.7846 million trips during the holiday[12] Group 2: Tourism and Consumption - Cross-province travel orders increased by 45% year-on-year, with orders for inter-provincial border cities rising by 58%[14] - Tourists are staying longer in the same city, with a 50% increase in visitors staying 7-8 days compared to 2024[15] - National retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in consumer spending[23] Group 3: International Risks - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant economic impacts, with estimated losses of $15 billion per week and a potential GDP growth reduction of 0.2 percentage points[32] - Political uncertainty in France following the resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu may hinder fiscal reforms and impact the EU's economic recovery[36] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi, may boost market sentiment in the short term, but long-term fiscal risks remain a concern due to high debt levels[40]