Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas, the US government shutdown persists, the Senate has rejected the appropriation bill for the seventh time, and there are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The dollar index has risen, and the prices of gold, oil, and stocks have fluctuated. Domestically, the stock and bond markets both rose on the first trading day after the holiday. The stock market is expected to rise structurally in the short term, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate in October [2][3]. - For precious metals, the easing of the Middle - East situation has weakened the safe - haven demand, and investors are taking profits. Gold and silver prices may face short - term adjustment risks [4]. - For copper, Teck Resources has lowered its production forecast, and the copper price is expected to continue to rise in the short term under the strong support of fundamentals [5][6]. - For aluminum, news has driven the price to continue to be strong, and the short - term price is expected to remain strong [7][8]. - For alumina, the supply pressure is still high in the short term, but the bottom support may gradually strengthen [9]. - For zinc, the short - term market sentiment is positive, and the zinc price is expected to continue to be strong in a volatile manner [10]. - For lead, the decrease in inventory during the holiday is beneficial to the price, but the increase in supply and weak consumption will limit the upward space [11]. - For tin, supply - side disturbances support the price, and the short - term price is expected to be strong, but the upward trend may slow down [12]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is slightly loose, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [13][14]. - For steel products, the demand has recovered after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - For iron ore, the demand is stable, the supply is flat, and the price is expected to fluctuate [17]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, the domestic supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [18][19]. - For palm oil, the expectation of the Indonesian B50 policy provides support, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - SHFE copper closed at 86,750 yuan/ton, up 4.38%; LME copper closed at 10,777 dollars/ton, up 0.74% [22]. - SHFE aluminum closed at 21,090 yuan/ton, up 1.98%; LME aluminum closed at 2,783 dollars/ton, up 1.13% [22]. - SHFE alumina closed at 2,875 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [22]. - SHFE zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, up 2.25%; LME zinc closed at 3,014 dollars/ton, up 0.65% [22]. - SHFE lead closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; LME lead closed at 2,021 dollars/ton, up 0.80% [22]. - SHFE nickel closed at 124,480 yuan/ton, up 2.96%; LME nickel closed at 15,485 dollars/ton, up 0.67% [22]. - SHFE tin closed at 287,090 yuan/ton; LME tin closed at 36,820 dollars/ton, up 1.57% [22]. - COMEX gold closed at 3,991.10 dollars/ounce, down 1.71%; SHFE silver closed at 11,169.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.30%; COMEX silver closed at 47.66 dollars/ounce, down 1.62% [22]. - SHFE rebar closed at 3,096 yuan/ton, up 0.78%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,286 yuan/ton, up 1.01% [22]. - DCE iron ore closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1.28% [22]. - DCE coking coal closed at 1,164.0 yuan/ton, up 3.37%; DCE coke closed at 1,654.0 yuan/ton, up 1.91% [22]. - GFEX industrial silicon closed at 8,640.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [22]. - CBOT soybeans closed at 1,021.8 yuan/ton, down 0.78%; DCE soybean meal closed at 2,939.0 yuan/ton; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,435.0 yuan/ton [22]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, SHFE copper's main contract price rose from 83,110 yuan/ton on September 30th to 86,750 yuan/ton on October 9th. LME copper's March contract price rose from 10,697 dollars/ton to 10,776.5 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 275 tons to 139,475 tons [23]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel's main contract price was 124,480 yuan/ton on October 9th. LME nickel's March contract price rose from 15,382 dollars/ton to 15,485 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 4,260 tons to 236,892 tons [23][26]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc's main contract price rose from 21,825 yuan/ton to 22,315 yuan/ton. LME zinc price rose from 2,994.5 dollars/ton to 3,014 dollars/ton. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,646 tons to 58,867 tons [26]. - For lead, SHFE lead's main contract price rose from 16,940 yuan/ton to 17,115 yuan/ton. LME lead price slightly decreased from 2,005 dollars/ton to 2,004.5 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 625 tons to 236,075 tons [26]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum's continuous third - month contract price was 21,085 yuan/ton. LME aluminum's March contract price rose from 2,751.5 dollars/ton to 2,782.5 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 2,200 tons to 508,600 tons [26]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina's main contract price rose from 2,868 yuan/ton to 2,875 yuan/ton. The national average spot price of alumina decreased from 3,008 yuan/ton to 2,998 yuan/ton [26]. - For tin, SHFE tin's main contract price was 287,090 yuan/ton. LME tin price rose from 36,250 dollars/ton to 36,820 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 115 tons to 2,390 tons [26]. - For precious metals, there were no significant price changes in SHFE gold, COMEX gold, and related gold products. SHFE silver and COMEX silver also had relatively stable prices. The SHFE gold - silver ratio rose from 80.09 to 81.86, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased slightly from 83.83 to 83.75 [26]. - For steel products, SHFE rebar's main contract price rose from 3,072 yuan/ton to 3,096 yuan/ton. SHFE hot - rolled coil's main contract price rose from 3,253 yuan/ton to 3,286 yuan/ton. The north - south price difference of rebar decreased slightly [28]. - For iron ore, DCE iron ore's main contract price rose from 780.5 yuan/ton to 790.5 yuan/ton. The price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose from 778 yuan/ton to 784 yuan/ton [28]. - For coking coal and coke, DCE coking coal's main contract price rose from 1,126.0 yuan/ton to 1,164.0 yuan/ton. DCE coke's main contract price rose from 1,623.0 yuan/ton to 1,654.0 yuan/ton [28]. - For lithium carbonate, the main contract price of lithium carbonate rose from 7.274 to 7.36. The spot prices of electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly [28]. - For industrial silicon, the main contract price of industrial silicon was 8,640 yuan/ton. The average price of East China's 3303 industrial silicon was 10,550 yuan/ton [28]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, CBOT soybean's main contract price rose from 1,000.75 to 1,021.75. DCE soybean meal's main contract price rose from 2,928 yuan/ton to 2,939 yuan/ton. CZCE rapeseed meal's main contract price rose from 2,421 yuan/ton to 2,435 yuan/ton [28].
铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251010
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-10 07:37