如何寻找债券市场的合理定价：近期市场反馈及思考6

Group 1 - Understanding the reasonable pricing of the bond market may require comprehension of the overdrawn market conditions in December 2024, where the 10-year government bond yield dropped from 2.02% to 1.68%, a decrease of 35 basis points, indicating a significant overdraw [7][8] - The financial system's lack of long-term capital is a key issue, with the proportion of government bonds with maturities over 7 years increasing from 33% in 2021 to over 43% in 2025, while the growth of long-term capital in the financial system has not kept pace [11][12] - The current bond market's characteristics can be understood through a game-theoretic perspective, where the slow duration reduction may be influenced by market sentiment, leading to a disconnection between market performance and fundamentals [14][15] Group 2 - The recent growth in credit bond ETFs is driven by policy support, with the scale reaching 485.9 billion yuan by the end of September 2025, and the second batch of 14 technology innovation bond ETFs launched, indicating a trend towards expansion [22][23] - The resilience of credit bonds in the third quarter can be attributed to a favorable funding environment, investor reluctance to sell, and the expansion of credit bond ETFs, with expectations for continued fluctuations in credit spreads in the fourth quarter [25][26] - The "Southbound Bond Connect" policy is expected to enhance the liquidity of offshore bonds, with the recent regulatory changes allowing for increased issuance and trading of offshore bonds, which may provide investment opportunities in high-quality local government bonds and international institution bonds [28]