强预期弱现实，煤焦震荡整理：煤焦日报-20251010

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, as of the week of October 10th, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.125 million tons, a slight weekly decrease of 1200 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4154 million tons, a weekly decrease of 2700 tons, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 56.28%, a 0.43 - percentage - point decrease. With insufficient upward drivers in its fundamentals and limited new positives since October, the coke futures are expected to trade in a range [5][31]. - For coking coal, as of the week of October 10th, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 752,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week and 14,000 tons from the same period last year. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, 10 road ports such as Erenhot and Ganqimaodu between China and Mongolia were closed for 7 days and resumed operations after the holidays. The combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.125 million tons, a slight weekly decrease of 1200 tons. After the holidays, the coking coal inventories of downstream enterprises decreased significantly. As of the week of October 10th, the coal inventory of independent coking plants was 9.5906 million tons, a decrease of 786,500 tons from the previous week, and that of 247 steel mills was 7.8113 million tons, a decrease of 69,300 tons. The coking coal fundamentals have insufficient support, but there are still strong expectations for industry and economic policies in the market, and with frequent recent coal - mine accidents, the coking coal futures' main contract is expected to trade in a range [6][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation will guide localities to govern enterprises' disorderly competition according to regulations. Measures include policy publicity, promoting industry self - regulation, strengthening market monitoring, and enhancing supervision and law enforcement [7]. - On October 10th, the coking coal auction prices in Linfen's Anze market were mostly up. Among the 10 reported transaction results with a total listed volume of 172,000 tons and only 1000 tons unsold, 4 saw price increases and 2 saw decreases, with an average increase of about 16.1 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of low - sulfur main - coking coal (A10.5, S1, G90) was 1451 yuan/ton, and the price of high - sulfur main - coking coal (A11, S3, G92) increased by 44 yuan/ton to 974 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1520 yuan | +3.40% | +3.40% | - 10.06% | - 19.58% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade out - warehouse) | 1420 yuan | - 2.74% | - 2.74% | - 12.35% | - 24.47% | | Coking coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1280 yuan | 0.00% | 0.00% | +8.47% | - 9.86% | | Coking coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1520 yuan | 0.00% | - 5.59% | +2.01% | - 18.28% | | Coking coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1660 yuan | 0.00% | - 2.92% | +8.50% | - 14.87% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1666.5 | 1.86 | 1674.0 | 1645.5 | 16,954 | 1,727 | 41,385 | - 499 | | Coking coal | | 1161.0 | 1.22 | 1179.0 | 1151.5 | 700,936 | 205,403 | 596,453 | 27,482 | [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents multiple charts on coke and coking coal inventories, domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation, but specific data trends are not described in text [13][14][25]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, with both expected to trade in a range due to their respective fundamental situations and market expectations [31][32].