Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-10 08:59Section 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Section 2: Core Views - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The ChiNext and STAR 50 indices weakened significantly, falling more than 2%. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with the CSI 500 being the most resilient. After the National Day holiday, the A-share market opened higher, but there was profit-taking and fear of high prices, leading to a significant adjustment on Friday [6][11]. - Treasury bond futures had mixed performances this week. The current bond market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The economic data shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand," and the foundation for the recovery of effective demand is not yet solid, which provides some support for the bond market. However, in the absence of incremental positive news, the market is sensitive to negative news, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term [6]. - The commodity market still shows a pattern of weak crude oil and strong gold. Since crude oil and gold have a large weight in the commodity index, it is expected that the commodity index will continue to fluctuate widely [6]. - The widening of the US-Japan interest rate differential has increased the expectation of a US dollar rebound. The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve limits the significant upward space. Japan's new political party is implementing fiscal stimulus and maintaining a loose stance, putting short-term pressure on the Japanese yen. The euro's trend mainly follows the inverse fluctuation of the US dollar [6][10]. Section 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The CSI 300 declined by 0.51%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures declined by 0.63%. The A-share market had a good start after the National Day holiday, but then adjusted due to profit-taking. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6][11]. Bonds - The 10-year Treasury bond yield declined by 0.10%, with a weekly change of -0.18 BP. The main 10-year Treasury bond futures rose by 0.09%. The bond market is in a mixed situation, and the recommendation is to wait and see cautiously [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose by 0.76%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 0.94%. The commodity market has a pattern of weak crude oil and strong gold, and the recommendation is to mainly wait and see [6]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar declined by 1.45%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract declined by 1.51%. The US dollar is expected to rebound, the yen is under pressure, and the euro follows the US dollar's inverse trend. The recommendation is to wait and see cautiously [6][10]. 3.2 Important News and Events - China has taken steps in extraterritorial jurisdiction, including export controls on rare earths and related technologies and adding foreign entities to the unreliable entity list. China and Italy held the 12th Joint Meeting of the Governmental Committee, and Premier Li Qiang met with the President of the European Commission [13]. - The US Federal Reserve showed a willingness to cut interest rates further this year, but many officials were cautious due to inflation concerns. Hamas announced that the Gaza war had ended. The OECD raised the global economic growth forecast, and the US government shutdown continued [15]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - The US 1-year inflation expectation in September was 3.38%. The eurozone's retail sales month-on-month rate in August was 0.1%. Germany's industrial output month-on-month rate in August was -4.3%, and its trade surplus was 17.2 billion euros. France's trade deficit in August was 5.53 billion euros. Japan's trade surplus in August was 105.9 billion yen [16]. - The central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 164.23 billion yuan this week [18]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as China's September export and import year-on-year rates, Germany's September CPI month-on-month rate, and the US September NFIB small business confidence index will be released [79].