Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-10 09:24Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2270 - 2350 in the short - term [7] - After the holiday, the methanol spot market was weak. Downstream buyers had sufficient pre - holiday stocks, and the actual transaction price of downstream products decreased passively [8] - Recently, the output of the restored methanol production capacity in China was more than the loss of the overhauled and reduced - production capacity, and the overall output increased slightly. Next week, the planned overhaul and reduction - production capacity will be less than the planned restored capacity, which may lead to a further increase in the utilization rate of domestic methanol plant capacity and output [8] - During the holiday, the downstream提货节奏 slowed down and the提货 volume was limited. The inventory of inland enterprises increased as a whole, but the inventory of enterprises in the northwest region decreased instead of increasing. The methanol port inventory accumulated, and there was still a possibility of an increase in port inventory in October [8] - In terms of demand, some previously overhauled devices such as Qinghai Salt Lake have restarted one after another. The MTO industry has maintained a high - level operation as a whole. The ethylene olefin device of Zhongyuan Ethylene is expected to stop in the later stage, and other devices are operating stably. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - Strategy: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2270 - 2350 in the short - term [7] - Market review: After the holiday, the methanol spot market was weak. Downstream buyers had sufficient pre - holiday stocks, and the actual transaction price of downstream products decreased passively [8] - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production may increase, inland enterprise inventory increased as a whole, northwest enterprise inventory decreased, port inventory accumulated, and the short - term demand side operating rate may decline slightly [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.9% [12] - As of October 10, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 44 [16] - As of October 10, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11,382, a decrease of 480 from last week [22] - Spot Market - As of October 10, the mainstream price in the East China Taicang area was 2,222.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in the Inner Mongolia area in the northwest was 2,077.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and the northwest was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.5 yuan/ton from last week [27] - As of October 9, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 256 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 70 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton from last week [33] - As of October 10, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 84.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.3 Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream - As of September 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [40] - As of October 10, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.24 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [40] - Industry - As of October 9, China's methanol production was 2,032,905 tons, an increase of 103,580 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.59%, a month - on - month increase of 5.36% [43] - As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 339,400 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.08%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 115,200 tons, a decrease of 157,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 57.79% [48] - As of October 9, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,543,200 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in the East China region increased by 47,800 tons, and the inventory in the South China region increased by 3,200 tons [48] - In August 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.7598 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.59%; from January to August 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 8.2398 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.52% [53] - As of October 9, the methanol import profit was 2.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.02 yuan/ton from last week [53] - Downstream - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 93.74%, a month - on - month increase of 4.49% [56] - As of October 10, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week [59]