瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1580 - 1650 [6] - After the holiday, the overall bearish sentiment in the domestic urea market intensified. Mainstream regional factories continuously lowered their quotes under sales pressure, but low prices had limited appeal to downstream buyers [7] - The domestic urea supply level has shown little change recently, with daily production fluctuating around 200,000 tons. After the holiday, due to the start of device overhauls at individual enterprises in Ningxia and Shanxi, the daily urea output decreased slightly, but the short - term average daily output remained above 190,000 tons [7] - Domestic agricultural demand is scattered, with only a slight increase in local agricultural demand, and there is no obvious improvement overall. Industrial demand is relatively stable. The production of autumn compound fertilizers is in the later stage, demand in most parts of North China is weakening, and more enterprises are reducing loads or shutting down. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to continue to decline slightly [7] - India's RCF has issued a new round of international urea import tenders, but since China's export window is about to close and the future export policy is unclear, the impact of this Indian tender on the domestic urea market needs continuous monitoring [7] - The advancement of rigid demand remains tepid, and domestic enterprises still face high inventory pressure [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1580 - 1650 [6] - Market review: After the holiday, the domestic urea market was bearish. Factories cut prices, but low prices had limited attraction to downstream [7] - Market outlook: Supply is stable with a slight decline in daily output. Agricultural demand is scattered, industrial demand is stable but compound fertilizer demand is weakening. The impact of the Indian tender needs monitoring, and enterprises face high inventory pressure [7] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 4.37% [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of October 10, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 69 [13] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Warehouse receipt trend: As of October 10, there were 7,017 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 156 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price trend: As of October 9, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [28] - Foreign price trend: As of October 9, the FOB price of urea in China was 385 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton from last week [31] - Basis trend: As of October 9, the urea basis was - 49 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from last week [36] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of September 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 10, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.24 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] 3.5 Industry Situation - Production: In September 2025, China's urea production was 5.7477 million tons, a decrease of 181,200 tons from the previous month and an increase of 110,900 tons compared to the same period [42] - Inventory: As of October 9, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 8.39%. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4439 million tons, an increase of 212,200 tons from last week, a 17.23% increase [45] - Export: In August 2025, China's urea export volume was 796,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.46% and a year - on - year increase of 3024.31%. From January to August 2025, the total urea export was 1.4411 million tons, an increase of 1.1966 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 489.41% [48] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer: As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 25.5%, a decrease of 6.96 percentage points from the previous period. It is expected to continue to decline slightly [51] - Melamine: As of October 9, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 65.47%, an increase of 3.95 percentage points from last week [51]