Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-10 09:24Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, market trading activity increased with the return of funds, and the cost - end support continued due to rainfall in overseas production areas affecting raw material supply, leading to a rise in rubber prices. However, as recent rainfall in production areas has weakened, the supply growth expectation is strong, and the natural rubber price is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - Global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has more rain, resulting in slow raw material release and weak raw material prices. In Hainan, the rainfall has improved, and new rubber output is gradually recovering. Some processing plants are more eager to purchase raw materials due to post - holiday replenishment needs [9]. - Qingdao port inventory has continued to decline, mainly in general trade warehouses. The overall warehouse inbound volume increased month - on - month before the holiday, and the outbound volume of general trade increased as downstream tire factories picked up pre - ordered goods, driving the inventory decline [9]. - During the holiday, some domestic tire enterprises had a 5 - 8 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance enterprises resume work, the device capacity will be gradually released [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12100 - 12730 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: After the holiday, market trading activity increased, and rubber prices rose due to cost - end support. However, with the weakening of rainfall in production areas, supply growth is expected to be strong, and the price will be range - bound [9]. - Market Outlook: Global production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has rain - affected raw material release, while Hainan's output is recovering. Qingdao port inventory is declining, and tire enterprise capacity will gradually be released after maintenance [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract between 12100 - 12730 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.9% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price rose by 2.07% week - on - week [12]. - As of October 10, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 40, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was - 10 [22]. - As of October 10, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 144390 tons, a decrease of 5420 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 41329 tons, a decrease of 705 tons from last week [27]. - Spot Market - As of October 10, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14700 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - As of October 9, the 20 - rubber basis was 801 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - As of October 9, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 53.9 (- 0.9) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 50.7 (+ 0.4) Thai baht/kg [39]. - As of September 26, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 15.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.8 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - As of October 9, the price of Yunnan latex was 14000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from last week [42]. - Import and Inventory - In August 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 52.08 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 412.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [46]. - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 tons, a decrease of 0.47 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.01%. Bonded area inventory was 6.94 tons, unchanged from the previous period; general trade inventory was 38.71 tons, a decline of 1.18% [50]. - Downstream - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period (20250926 - 1002) and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period (20250926 - 1002) and a year - on - year decrease of 0.78 percentage points [53]. - In August 2025, China's tire export volume was 76.91 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, the cumulative tire export volume was 570.30 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [57]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 10.5 tons (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% from August and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 80 tons, reaching 82.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.