Dongguan Securities·2025-10-10 09:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the telecommunications industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [2][40]. Core Insights - The global telecommunications equipment market has shown signs of recovery in the first half of 2025 after two years of investment decline, with significant growth in mobile core networks, optical transmission, and service provider routers and switches [3][15]. - Huawei has maintained its position as the leading telecommunications equipment supplier, capturing 31% of the market share and continuing to expand its market advantage [3][36]. - The telecommunications industry is currently in a phase of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers emerging from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy sectors [3][36]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with the themes of "technology commercialization + policy catalysis + earnings certainty" [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Review - The Shenyuan telecommunications sector index fell by 2.70% over the past two weeks (9/26-10/9), underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.22 percentage points, ranking 29th among 31 sectors [11][12]. - Year-to-date, the telecommunications sector has risen by 63.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 43.70 percentage points [11][12]. 2. Industry News - Dell'Oro Group reported a 4% year-on-year increase in global telecommunications equipment revenue in the first half of 2025, driven by various factors including a lower year-on-year base and stable inventory levels [15]. - LightCounting indicated that AI is taking a dominant role in the market [16]. - The 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicle Conference will be held in Beijing, focusing on AI and telecommunications applications in the automotive industry [20]. - The number of AI companies in China has exceeded 5,300, with the industry scale surpassing 900 billion yuan, growing by 24% year-on-year [21]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has granted China Mobile a license for satellite mobile communication services, enhancing communication capabilities in various scenarios [22]. 3. Company Announcements - Guanghe Communication has approved the global issuance and listing of H shares [23]. - Tianyi Co. signed a procurement framework agreement with China Telecom for dual-band broadband integrated terminals [24]. - Hainengda announced a share transfer agreement involving 5% of its equity [25]. 4. Industry Data Updates 4.1 Telecommunications User Scale Data - As of August 2025, the mobile phone user base reached approximately 1.819 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.67% [26]. - The internet broadband access user base reached about 689 million, up 4.97% year-on-year [26]. 4.2 Optical Fiber and Cable Data - The length of optical cable lines reached approximately 73.77 million kilometers in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.91% [28]. - The optical cable production in August 2025 was 20.44 million core kilometers, a decrease of 10.70% year-on-year [29]. 4.3 5G Development Status - By August 2025, the total number of 5G base stations reached 4.646 million, with a net increase of 395,000 from the end of the previous year [33]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Mobile, China Telecom, FiberHome, Yangtze Optical Fibre, and Weisheng Information, which are well-positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [36].