棉花月报：新棉逐步上市，郑棉大幅走低-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, cotton prices dropped significantly. The September USDA report had a neutral impact on the international market. In the US cotton - growing areas, there was a lack of rainfall. The US cotton had a good rate of high - quality and harvest. As of September 28, the US cotton good - quality rate was 47%, higher than 31% in the same period last year; the harvest rate was 16%, lower than 19% last year but the same as the five - year average. The continuous harvest and listing of US cotton put pressure on cotton prices. Also, the US dollar index rebounded after a decline, and US crude oil and grains performed weakly, causing US cotton to fluctuate downward. [5] - In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and the import of cotton is relatively small. New cotton harvesting has started in some areas, but the listing volume is limited. The downstream demand has improved slightly but remains weak overall. The China Cotton Association shows that this year's domestic cotton output has increased to 7.216 million tons, reaching a new high since 2013. [5] - Due to the drag from the industry and the external environment, US cotton has weakened. The continuous consumption of domestic cotton inventory supports cotton prices. However, the gradual start of new cotton harvesting and the relatively soft downstream demand suppress the short - term decline of Zhengzhou cotton futures. In the medium - to - long - term, Zhengzhou cotton will also perform weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. The recommended operation is to short the 01 contract on rallies. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - As of the close on September 30, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 65.72 cents per pound, down 0.81 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 1.22%. The CF2601 contract closed at 13,215 yuan per ton, down 1,025 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 7.20% [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 US Cotton - The US cotton report is neutral. In 2025/26, the planting area increased by 20,000 to 9.3 million acres, the harvest area increased by 10,000 to 7.37 million acres, the yield per unit decreased by 1 pound to 861 pounds per acre, the output increased by 10,000 to 13.22 million bales, the total consumption remained flat at 13.7 million bales, and the ending inventory remained flat at 3.6 million bales [14] - The US cotton good - quality rate is acceptable. As of September 28, 2025, the US cotton good - quality rate was 47%, the same as the previous week and higher than 31% in the same period last year. The harvest rate was 16%, up from 12% the previous week, lower than 19% last year but the same as the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 67%, up from 60% the previous week, lower than 71% last year and 69% of the five - year average [17] - US cotton export sales are weak. As of the week of September 18, the export contract volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, a 54% decrease compared with the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks. The main buyers are India and Turkey, also including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Italy [21] 3.2.2 Domestic Market - The downstream spinning mill's operation rate has stabilized. As of September 25, the operation load of mainstream spinning enterprises was 66.6%, the same as the previous week. Before the National Day holiday, there was no large - scale stockpiling, new orders slowed down compared with the previous period, market confidence was insufficient, and spinning enterprises continued to maintain a reasonable inventory. The operation rate in the inland was 50% - 60%, and in Xinjiang, it was maintained at about 90% [24] - Downstream spinning enterprises continued to reduce inventory. As of the week of September 25, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning enterprises was equivalent to 27.70 days of storage. As of September 25, the yarn inventory of major spinning enterprises was 30.3 days, a 0.33% decrease from the previous period. This week, the de - stocking of finished yarn slowed down, downstream traders were cautious, and procurement was not active. The inventory of large - scale factories in Xinjiang was about 35 days, and that of inland enterprises was about 15 days [27] - Zhengzhou cotton inventory continued to decline. As of September 26, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.0315 million tons, a decrease of 111,100 tons (a 9.72% decrease) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 505,400 tons, a decrease of 59,200 tons (a 10.49% decrease) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 43,100 tons (a 14.76% decrease) from the previous week. As of September 25, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.08% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 277,200 tons [30]