原油周度报告-20251010

1. Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has fluctuated widely recently under the dual influence of geopolitics and OPEC+ production increase expectations, and is expected to continue this trend. The supply surplus expectation suppresses oil prices, while geopolitical disturbances and shale oil costs provide support [8][53]. - It is recommended to operate within the range, focusing on the WTI crude oil price range of $58 - $63 per barrel [9][53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza cease - fire agreement; OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November; the Fed's September meeting minutes show internal differences on the rate - cut amplitude this year [7]. - Key data: The EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 3 increased by 3.715 million barrels; the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 76,300 barrels; the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 28,500 barrels [7]. - Crude oil is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. Geopolitical disturbances and shale oil costs support prices, while OPEC+ production increase and the end of the refined - oil consumption peak season strengthen the supply - surplus expectation, suppressing prices [8]. - It is recommended to operate in the range of $58 - $63 per barrel for WTI crude oil [9]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Focus - Bullish factors: Geopolitical uncertainty [11]. - Bearish factors: Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza cease - fire agreement; OPEC+ production increase accelerates [11]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - Fed: Most Fed officials think it may be appropriate to further relax monetary policy this year, but there are differences in the rate - cut space. The market bets that the Fed will cut rates again in October, but internal differences bring uncertainty [14]. - OPEC+: Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will increase supply - side pressure and suppress prices [16][18]. - Geopolitics: The Gaza cease - fire agreement shows a positive side, but its implementation may be repeated. The Russia - Ukraine conflict remains highly uncertain, and attacks on energy infrastructure will affect the crude oil supply and support prices [19]. 3.4 Supply - and - Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Supply - US crude oil production reached a new high for the year, with a week - on - week increase of 124,000 barrels to 1.3629 million barrels per day as of the week ending October 3. The supply - side pressure will gradually emerge as the refined - oil consumption peak season ends [20]. - The total number of US oil rigs decreased slightly to 422 as of the week ending October 3, and is expected to remain at a low level [22]. 3.4.2 Demand - The US refinery utilization rate rose to 92.4% for the week ending October 3, up 1 percentage point. It is expected to gradually recover in the fourth quarter [24]. - US crude oil and gasoline demand rose slightly, with crude oil demand increasing by 419,000 barrels per day and gasoline demand by 387,200 barrels per day [29]. - The refinery utilization rate in 16 European countries continued to rise to 85.98% in August, with a month - on - month increase of 1.7 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.85 percentage points. It is expected to face downward pressure at the beginning of the fourth quarter [30]. - In China, the utilization rate of major refineries decreased to 80.27% as of September 25, while that of local refineries rose to 60.07%. The "major refinery decline, local refinery rise" pattern continues [35]. - Chinese refinery profits declined slightly. As of September 26, the comprehensive refining profit of major refineries was 823.98 yuan/ton, and that of local refineries was 186.64 yuan/ton [39]. 3.4.3 Inventory - The EIA crude oil inventory in the US may reach an inflection point and face inventory - building pressure. The EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 3.715 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 28,500 barrels [44]. - The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by 76,300 barrels for the week ending October 3, and the gasoline inventory decreased by 16.01 million barrels as of May 9 [48]. 3.4.4 Crack Spread - The US crude oil crack spread rose slightly but remained lower than the same period in previous years and showed a downward trend recently. It is expected to continue to decline as consumption enters the off - season [49]. 3.5 Future Outlook - The operating logic of crude oil has not changed significantly. It is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation. Pay attention to inventory changes and geopolitical evolution. It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $58 - $63 per barrel [53].