Dongguan Securities·2025-10-10 09:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [49]. Core Insights - The lithium battery index has increased by 5.09% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.57 percentage points. Year-to-date, the lithium battery index has risen by 64.43%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 44.75 percentage points [4][13]. - Strong demand for energy storage in both domestic and international markets is noted, with leading battery companies operating at full capacity and orders extending into next year. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have set a target for new energy storage installations to exceed 180 GW by 2027 [45]. - Recent government announcements regarding export controls on lithium batteries and related materials are expected to have a minimal impact on compliant export applications. Significant breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology have been achieved, indicating ongoing advancements in the industry [45]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of October 9, 2025, the lithium battery index has shown a 5.09% increase over the last two weeks and a 1.52% increase for the month, with a year-to-date increase of 64.43% [4][13]. Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Supply Chain - As of October 9, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 72,900 CNY/ton, down 0.82% over the past two weeks. Lithium hydroxide prices remained stable at 71,600 CNY/ton. Prices for various cathode materials have seen increases, with NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 rising by 5.13%, 3.73%, and 2.40% respectively [6][28][33]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on lithium batteries and related materials effective November 8, 2025. This includes lithium-ion batteries with energy densities of 300 Wh/kg or more and specific cathode materials [41]. - The report highlights the strong performance of leading companies in the lithium battery supply chain, suggesting a focus on firms with technological and production advantages in solid-state electrolytes and new cathode/anode materials [45][46]. Company Announcements - Notable companies such as CATL (宁德时代) and EVE Energy (亿纬锂能) are highlighted for their advancements in solid-state battery production and significant revenue growth, with CATL achieving a revenue of 178.886 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.27% [46][47].