焦煤焦炭周度报告-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the supply of domestic coking coal decreased slightly, the mine end accumulated a small amount of inventory, and the inventory of sample coal washing plants decreased significantly. The overall upstream inventory pressure is not large. With limited domestic supply increase after the holiday, Mongolian coal will make up for the supply, and the overall supply - demand is relatively balanced. The coking coal futures market is significantly affected by external macro - sentiment, and its fundamental driving force is limited. The short - term price has support below, and the upward space needs macro - and micro - resonance [6][35]. - Supported by coking coal costs, the first round of coke price increase was implemented on October 1st, improving the profitability of coke enterprises compared to before the holiday. However, the high - level fluctuations of raw material prices erode steel enterprises' profits, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises, and suppressing the upward space of coke enterprises' per - ton profit. Currently, the inventory pressure of independent coke enterprises has been significantly reduced. With the improvement of the inventory structure, the influence of the cost side increases, and the coke futures market follows the coking coal market [6][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: The US will impose new port fees on three types of China - related ships from October 14th; the EU plans to cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemption and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%; China's relevant departments will guide the assessment of industry average costs to maintain market price order; 22 central safety inspection teams will conduct inspections in 31 provincial - level regions in November; a coal mine in Shaanxi has fully resumed production [6]. - Fundamental Overview: Domestic coking coal supply decreased slightly; upstream coking coal inventory pressure is not large; independent coke enterprises reduced coking coal inventory, and steel mills' raw material inventory decreased slightly; overall coke production was stable; hot metal production remained at a high level, supporting coke consumption; a new round of coke price increase was implemented [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish Factors: Reduced coking coal inventory pressure; high hot metal production supporting coke demand; environmental and safety inspections in autumn and winter affecting coal supply expectations [9]. - Bearish Factors: Recovery of Mongolian coal imports; low enthusiasm of steel mills for replenishing inventory; suppressed profitability of steel mills [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Domestic Coking Coal Supply: During the National Day holiday, the开工 rate and daily output of 523 sample mines and 314 sample coal washing plants decreased. Before the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was at a high level. With limited domestic supply increase, Mongolian coal makes up for the supply [14]. - Coking Coal Upstream Inventory: As of October 10th, 523 sample mines' clean coal inventory increased, 314 sample coal washing plants' clean coal inventory decreased, and port coking coal inventory remained unchanged. The overall upstream inventory pressure is not large [17]. - Independent Coke Enterprises' Coking Coal Inventory: As of October 10th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory increased slightly [20]. - Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory: As of October 10th, the coking coal and coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased [24]. - Coke Production: As of October 10th, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of all - sample independent coking enterprises were relatively stable, while those of 247 steel enterprises decreased slightly. Overall coke production remained stable [26]. - Coke Consumption: As of the week of October 10th, China's coke consumption and 247 steel enterprises' hot metal daily output decreased slightly. Hot metal production remained at a high level, supporting coke demand [28]. - Coke Price Increase: As of October 9th, the average per - ton profit of 30 independent coking plants was 9 yuan/ton. The first - round coke price increase was implemented on October 1st, improving the profitability of coke enterprises. As of the week of October 10th, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified [30]. - Basis Structure of Coking Coal and Coke Futures: The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke maintained a volatile trend [32]. 3.4后市研判 - Coking Coal: After the holiday, the supply - demand of coking coal is relatively balanced. The futures market is affected by macro - sentiment, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Future attention should be paid to the increase in upstream supply, downstream demand, and the impact of important domestic meetings in October [35]. - Coke: The first - round price increase improved the profitability of coke enterprises, but the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, suppressing the profit space of coke enterprises. The coke futures market follows the coking coal market [38].