铜产业链周度报告-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data showed an unexpected decline, far lower than market expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to implement further monetary easing policies [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points, non - manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion [5]. - The US government "shutdown" increased overseas macro - uncertainty, and the release of economic data was delayed, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to make accurate monetary policies [5]. - Due to the mud accident at the Indonesian mine, copper supply was disrupted. Domestic smelters were in a high - maintenance period, and refined copper production was expected to decline, but inventory would increase [5]. - High copper prices may suppress consumption in the short - term, but in the medium - term, copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish Factors: Refined copper production is expected to decline, and the copper concentrate processing fee remains low, indicating tight supply at the mine end [8]. - Bearish Factors: Social inventory is accumulating, high copper prices may suppress consumption, and overseas macro - uncertainty has increased [8]. - Overseas political fluctuations have increased, further strengthening the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Copper Ore Imports: In August, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.759 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [20]. - Copper Concentrate TC: As of the week of September 26, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.68 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.66 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The mud accident at the Indonesian mine increased market concerns about copper supply [24]. - Refined Copper Supply: In August, China's refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In October, domestic smelters will conduct large - scale maintenance, which may lead to a phased tightening of refined copper supply [28]. - Scrap Copper Imports: In August, China's scrap copper imports were 179,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The decline was due to factors such as import losses, extreme weather, and reduced overseas exports [32]. - Copper Products Output: In August, China's copper products output was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, reaching a high level in the same period over the years [36]. - Copper Consumption: The price of refined copper spot has risen significantly, which is not conducive to refined copper consumption. As of October 9, the refined - scrap spread was around 390 yuan per ton [40]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3.79% in the week of September 30. Domestic social inventory increased, with the electrolytic copper spot inventory reaching 167,900 tons on October 9, an increase of 11,200 tons compared with September 29 [55]. - Spot Premium: On October 9, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper changed from discount to premium, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [59]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Home Appliance Industry: In August, the output of household refrigerators increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output of household air conditioners increased by 9.4% year - on - year. However, in the fourth quarter, the home appliance industry is expected to face pressure of slowing growth [44]. - Real Estate Industry: In August, real estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion all declined year - on - year. Although some first - tier cities have introduced policies to support the market, the real estate market is still under pressure, and copper demand in the real estate sector remains weak [48]. - Automobile Industry: In August, traditional automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also showed strong growth, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively, and the market demand is strong [52]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62].