沥青周度报告-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the fundamentals of asphalt have little change, and its price is mainly driven by crude oil. Affected by the decline in international oil prices during the holiday, asphalt prices fluctuated weakly this week. With limited improvement in asphalt demand, the fundamentals provide limited support for the market. As downstream demand enters the off - season and there are high production plans, the weakening fundamentals may suppress prices. Crude oil continues to oscillate widely due to geopolitical and fundamental factors, but as the peak demand season ends, the expectation of supply surplus strengthens, and the cost - side support for asphalt weakens. Overall, asphalt lacks upward momentum in the short term and is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. It is recommended to focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [8][58]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza cease - fire agreement; OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November; there are differences among Fed officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts this year [7]. - Key Data: As of September 24, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 40.1%, up 5.7 percentage points from the previous period. As of October 10, the weekly asphalt production was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 690,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week; the social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week [8]. - Trading Strategy: Focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [9]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish Factors: Geopolitical uncertainty and high refinery production [12]. - Bearish Factors: OPEC+ production increase [12]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - OPEC+ Production Increase: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Russia and Saudi Arabia have a quota of 41,000 barrels per day, Iraq 18,000 barrels per day, UAE 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait 10,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan 7,000 barrels per day, Oman and Algeria 4,000 barrels per day each. This shows OPEC+'s determination to compete for market share through production increase, which will increase supply - side pressure and suppress prices [14][16]. - Geopolitical Situation: A Gaza cease - fire agreement is expected to be reached, but its implementation may be repeated. The Russia - Ukraine conflict remains highly uncertain, and attacks on energy infrastructure may disrupt crude oil supply and support oil prices [17]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of October 10, the weekly asphalt production was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. The production of state - owned refineries was basically flat, while that of local refineries decreased. The operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises as of September 24 was 40.1%, up 5.7 percentage points from the previous period, with significant increases in East China and Shandong. As state - owned refineries enter seasonal maintenance, the operating rate may decline [18][28]. - Demand: As of September 26, the weekly asphalt shipment was 496,000 tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from the previous week. However, as demand enters the off - season, shipments may decline. The weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt as of September 26 was 18.94%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points from last week. It is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, with limited long - term growth potential [29][32]. - Inventory: As of October 10, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 690,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week, mainly in North China and Shandong. The social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed slowed down during the National Day holiday [42][49]. - Spread: As of September 26, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 554.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 185 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio as of September 30 was 54.85. The crack spread and basis are expected to remain stable [56]. 3.5后市研判 - In the short term, asphalt lacks upward momentum, and crude oil will continue to dominate the market. It is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. Focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [58].