聚酯链日报：油价趋势偏弱叠加需求平淡，聚酯原料下行顺畅-20251010

1. Core Viewpoint The oil price trend is weak and demand is flat, causing a smooth decline in polyester raw materials. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Due to the downward shift of the PX - PTA cost center, varieties with high inventory pressure like FDY/DTY may need to further reduce prices to clear inventory, while the price of short - fiber with low inventory has relatively strong support [2][5]. 2. Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On October 09, the PX main contract closed at 6586.0 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 100.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4584.0 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 44.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Cost end: On October 09, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.08 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 62.3 US dollars/barrel. Demand end: On October 09, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 680.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 857.33 million meters [3]. - Supply end: Although the PX futures price rose slightly, the basis discount continued to expand to - 100 yuan/ton, indicating that the supply pressure in the spot market remained unchanged, possibly related to the recovery of overseas plant operation and the expected release of new domestic production capacity. The current operating rate of PTA is still high, and some plants plan to overhaul or reduce production under the environment of low processing fees, but there is still an over - supply risk on the supply side as a whole. The decline of the crude oil price center weakens the cost support, and the supply pressure of PX is transmitted to PTA, putting pressure on PTA production profits, and the operating rate may be passively lowered later [3]. - Demand end: Polyester demand shows weak signals. The transaction volume of 680 million meters in Light Textile City is significantly lower than the 15 - day average of 857 million meters, reflecting the weakening of downstream textile orders and the lack of sustainability of terminal restocking. The sales rate of polyester filament has fluctuated and declined recently, and the seasonal decline of loom operation may further suppress the PTA procurement demand [4]. - Inventory end: PTA factory inventory has accumulated slightly for two consecutive weeks. Currently, the basis maintains a discount structure (- 44 yuan/ton), indicating that the spot liquidity is relatively abundant. Factories mainly focus on active inventory reduction under the situation of weakening demand and low processing fees. As the supply - demand contradiction deepens, if the demand side fails to improve substantially, the inventory pressure may gradually become apparent [4]. Polyester - On October 09, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6276.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6405.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 129.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The inventory of polyester short - fiber is 7.58 days, significantly lower than the five - year average of 4.96 days. The inventory of POY is 13.6 days, lower than the average of 20.40 days. The inventory of FDY is 24.1 days, slightly exceeding the average of 22.19 days. The inventory of DTY is 28.9 days, close to the average of 28.42 days. The structural differentiation shows that the inventory reduction of short - fiber and POY is better than that of FDY/DTY [5]. 3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Futures and Spot Price Changes - PX futures: The main contract price was 6586 yuan/ton on October 09, up 0.24% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 43.50%, and the main contract positions decreased by 0.99%. PX spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB both declined slightly [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4584 yuan/ton on October 09, down 0.22% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 5.37%, and the main contract positions increased by 4.75%. PTA spot prices in China's main port CFR declined slightly [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6292 yuan/ton on October 09, up 0.25% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 42.79%, and the main contract positions decreased by 2.08%. The short - fiber spot price in the East China market remained unchanged [6]. Other Price and Index Changes - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil main contracts declined. The prices of CFR Japan naphtha declined, while the prices of ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged [6]. - The processing spreads of some products changed. For example, the processing spread of PX increased by 2.53%, and the processing spread of PTA increased by 6.33%, while the processing spreads of some other products remained unchanged or decreased slightly [7]. - The total trading volume of Light Textile City decreased by 44.72% compared with September 30, and the trading volumes of long - fiber and short - fiber fabrics also decreased significantly [7]. - The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. The inventory days of polyester short - fiber increased by 19.18%, while the inventory days of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY decreased [7]. 4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On October 09, the minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed internal division among officials, cautiously hinting at a further interest rate cut this year. The EIA crude oil inventory in the US last week increased by 371.5 million barrels, higher than the market expectation of 188.5 million barrels and the previous week's 179.2 million barrels [8]. - On October 08, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed in September was 3.38%, up from the previous value of 3.20%. Fed's Kashkari said that the current economic data showed some signs of stagflation. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 11th consecutive month [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 09, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 680.0 million meters, with a month - on - month growth of - 44.72%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 541.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 138.0 million meters [9]. 5. Inferred Future Price Trends - Supply end: The slight increase in PX price may indicate potential supply pressure. The decline in crude oil prices may reduce PX costs, but the negative basis may mean sufficient spot supply, which may suppress PX production profits and lead enterprises to reduce the operating rate. If PX supply increases, PTA production may increase, but downstream demand needs to be considered [38]. - Demand end: The significantly lower trading volume in Light Textile City than the 15 - day average shows weak downstream textile demand. The decrease in the demand for polyester products may lead to a decline in PTA demand. Low trading volume may reflect a decrease in downstream orders, affecting polyester operation and further suppressing PTA demand [38]. - Inventory end: Although the PTA factory inventory data is missing, combined with the negative basis and the decline in demand, it can be inferred that the inventory may accumulate and there is an over - supply situation. The negative basis usually means sufficient spot supply and increasing inventory pressure [38]. - Overall, due to over - supply and insufficient demand, the prices of PX and PTA may decline in the future [39].