乙二醇日报：供给边际收缩与库存压力并存，EG延续悲观情绪-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for ethylene glycol may be a low - level oscillating pattern. The marginal contraction of supply provides bottom support for prices, but the lack of improvement in the polyester and terminal weaving loads on the demand side, along with the increase in port inventories to a yearly high, suppresses the price rebound space. Future attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations in crude oil/coal and the seasonal improvement rhythm of downstream orders. If inventory depletion fails to meet expectations, prices may test previous lows again [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Price and Basis: From September 30 to October 9, the price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped from 4,207 yuan/ton to 4,158 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.16%, showing a five - day consecutive downward trend. The East China spot price also fell by 45 yuan/ton to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened from 63 yuan/ton to 112 yuan/ton, deepening the futures discount [2]. - Position and Trading Volume: The position of the main contract increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots, indicating intensified market divergence and active short - side position - increasing during the price decline [2]. - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 70.33%, with a significant 1.6 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based unit operating rate to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 62.95%. The contraction of oil - based production capacity provides marginal support to the supply side [2]. - Demand Side: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand. The polyester segment lacked incremental drivers for ethylene glycol consumption [2]. - Inventory Side: The East China main port inventory increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory soared by 40.6% to 18 tons in a single week. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating low actual port shipments and accelerating inventory pressure [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and Spot Prices: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 1.16% to 4,158 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price decreased by 1.05% to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 77.78% to 112 yuan/ton [5]. - Position and Trading Volume: The main contract position increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots [5]. - Operating Rates: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.37% to 70.3%, with the oil - based operating rate dropping by 2.13% to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged [5]. - Inventory and Arrival Volume: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On October 9, the East China US - dollar market first declined and then slightly recovered, with no reported transactions. The mainstream market center dropped, and prices in the South China, Shaanxi, and East China markets all decreased due to weak supply - demand patterns and downstream demand [6]. - During the holiday, international oil prices fell, weakening cost - side support. Domestic ethylene glycol supply increased, and port inventories accumulated [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, domestic ethylene glycol unit operating rates, downstream polyester unit operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics [7][9][11].