农产品日报：现货价格整体上调，豆粕维持震荡-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The market is worried about China's soybean supply in Q1 2026 due to the lack of a Sino - US trade consensus. Argentina's zero - tariff policy on agricultural product exports may intensify export competition between North and South America, leading to price drops in both international and domestic markets. Currently, the domestic downstream soybean supply is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates, which pressured domestic soybean meal prices down in September. Attention should be paid to policy changes as US soybean harvesting accelerates and Brazil's new - season soybean sowing progresses smoothly [3] - In the domestic corn market, the cooler weather this year is conducive to corn storage. New - grain listing and farmers' selling enthusiasm and acquisition situation need attention. As new - season corn has not been massively listed, supply in North and South China is tight, keeping prices firm. However, corn prices may enter a seasonal decline as new - grain supply increases [5] Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2939 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2435 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.58%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 51, up 9; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 39, down 1; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 29, down 1. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 195, up 16 [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2138 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.23%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2430 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-1.54%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C11 + 42, down 115; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CS11 + 130, up 28 [4] Market Information - Brazil: In September, Brazil's soybean exports were 734.1 million tons, higher than 610.6 million tons in the same period last year, with a daily average export of 33.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.2%. Brazil's corn exports in September were 756.3 million tons, compared to 642.1 million tons in September last year, with a daily average export of 343,776 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.8%. The corn export value reached 1.53 billion US dollars, and the average export price was 202.4 US dollars/ton, a 4.0% increase from the same period last year [2][4] - US: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of old - crop soybeans in the US was 316 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 323 million bushels and 342 million bushels in the same period last year. As of the week ending October 2, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 768,000 tons. As of the week ending October 3, 2024, it was 1.626 million tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 3.031 million tons, compared to 3.555 million tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: Due to the lack of a Sino - US trade consensus, there are concerns about China's soybean supply in Q1 2026. Argentina's policy may intensify competition and lead to price drops. Currently, the domestic supply is sufficient, and oil - mill operating rates are high, pressuring prices down in September. Future policy changes need attention [3] - Corn: The cooler weather is good for storage. New - grain listing and acquisition need attention. Supply in North and South China is tight now, but prices may decline seasonally as new - grain supply increases [5] Strategies - For both soybean meal and corn, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3][4][5][6]