“君研咖啡”系列报告之二：咖啡：结构性矛盾凸显

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the fourth quarter of 2023, against the backdrop of the global agricultural product prices oscillating downwards to near production costs, the ICE US coffee price has risen significantly against the trend and reached a record high, and the price difference between Arabica and Robusta coffee has also hit a new high [2][7]. - The structural contradiction in the global Arabica coffee market continues to be prominent. Although the price has reached a record high, the Arabica coffee production is still lower than the historical peak, and the proportion of Arabica coffee production is decreasing year by year. Meanwhile, the demand for Arabica coffee is strong due to the rapid growth of freshly - ground coffee consumption [2][24]. - The Brazilian产区 is the core anchor point for trading global Arabica coffee. Although most major producing countries have increased their Arabica coffee production under high - price incentives, the large reduction in Brazil's output offsets the increase in other regions, resulting in the global Arabica coffee production still being lower than the 20/21 level [3][34] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Arabica Coffee Price Remains High - The price of Arabica coffee has always fluctuated greatly. From 1999 to 2025, there were significant increases and decreases in the ICE US coffee主力合约 price, with a maximum cumulative increase of 631.99% and a maximum cumulative decrease of 71.68% [6]. - Since the fourth quarter of 2023, the ICE US coffee price has risen significantly against the trend and reached a record high. On February 11, 2025, it hit a historical high of 429.95 cents/pound. After a short - term decline, it reached 424.00 cents/pound on September 16, 2025 [7]. - Since September 2024, the price ratio and difference between Arabica and Robusta coffee have been rising, and the difference reached nearly 200 cents/pound on September 15, 2025, a record high [8] 3.2 Global Arabica Coffee Production Has Not Fully Recovered 3.2.1 Arabica Coffee Has Higher Requirements for Planting Environment and Management Level - Arabica coffee has higher requirements for planting environment and management level. It is more sensitive to high temperatures, has weaker pest - resistance, needs higher - altitude planting and more refined management, but has lower yields per unit area compared to Robusta coffee [13]. - USDA predicts that the global Arabica coffee production in 25/26 will be 582 tons, accounting for 54.30% of the global coffee production [13] 3.2.2 Global Coffee Production Has Recovered - Global coffee production is highly concentrated and has increased for three consecutive years. USDA predicts that the global coffee production in 25/26 will be 10.72 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons). The top 5 producing countries account for 73.49% of the total production, and the top 10 account for 88.50%. The top 5 producing countries are Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, and Ethiopia [14]. - The global coffee ending stocks - to - use ratio is still low. Although the production has increased for 3 consecutive years, the ending stocks - to - use ratio remains at a low level. USDA predicts that the global coffee production in 25/26 will be 10.72 million tons, consumption will be 10.16 million tons, and ending stocks will be 1.37 million tons [17] 3.2.3 The Proportion of Arabica Coffee Is Decreasing Year by Year - The global Arabica coffee production has not fully recovered, and its proportion in the total coffee production remains at a low level. USDA predicts that the global Arabica coffee production in 25/26 will be 5.82 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 100,000 tons), while the Robusta coffee production will be 4.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons), and the proportion of Arabica coffee production will drop from 56.6% to 54.3% [21]. - Among the top 5 Arabica coffee producing countries, only Brazil produces both Arabica and Robusta. USDA predicts that in 25/26, the Arabica coffee production in Brazil will account for 63% of its total coffee production, and the other 4 major producing countries almost entirely produce Arabica. Among the top 5 Robusta coffee producing countries, the Robusta coffee production in Vietnam will account for 97% of its total production in 25/26 [29] 3.3 Brazilian产区 Is the Core Anchor Point for Trading Arabica Coffee - USDA predicts that the global Arabica coffee production in 25/26 will be 5.82 million tons, 310,000 tons less than in 20/21. Among the top 5 producing areas, Brazil's production will decrease by 530,000 tons, and Colombia's will decrease by 50,000 tons, while Ethiopia's will increase by 240,000 tons, Honduras's will decrease by 40,000 tons, and Peru's will increase by 60,000 tons [34]. - Driven by high prices, most major producing countries have increased their Arabica coffee production compared to 20/21. However, due to the large reduction in Brazil's output, the global Arabica coffee production is still lower than the 20/21 level. Therefore, the Brazilian产区 remains the core anchor point for trading global Arabica coffee in the future [34]