存储行业：当成长逻辑占优之际，大周期来临

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the storage industry is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The current storage cycle is fundamentally different from previous cycles, driven by AI demand which is continuously increasing storage needs. The industry logic is transitioning from a supply-side controlled production cycle to a demand-driven cycle where supply gaps are gradually forming [2][6] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the storage industry due to the prevailing growth logic [2][6] Demand Side Summary - For HDD and SSD, the "train-inference-train" cycle of large models is leading to a sustained expansion in storage demand. Nearline HDD is currently experiencing supply shortages, with delivery times extending beyond 52 weeks. North American CSP manufacturers are locking in HDD production capacity for 2026 based on demand [12] - DRAM demand is also expected to grow, driven by the increasing capacity and shipment of HBM alongside the growth of Server DRAM (e.g., DDR5). If AI PCs and AI mobile devices continue to develop, overall DRAM demand is likely to increase further [12] Supply Side Summary - Over the past few years, storage manufacturers have not effectively released large-scale production capacity, focusing instead on AI-related demand. New capacity takes a long time to come online, leading to a relatively rigid supply release based on utilization rate improvements [12] - The current storage cycle is characterized by a shift from a supply-controlled price cycle to a demand-driven cycle with gradually forming supply gaps [12] Price Outlook - The storage market is expected to see price increases in 2026 due to strong AI demand, with manufacturers continuing to tilt production capacity towards server products, thereby squeezing consumer-grade supply. According to TrendForce, storage prices are expected to rise continuously [12] Industry Chain Summary - The report highlights key companies within the storage industry chain, including module and distribution companies, niche storage firms, supporting industry chain companies, and core players in the Changxin/Changcun industry chain [23]