Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-10 10:40Group 1: Report Core View - The macro - situation includes the upcoming 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee from October 20 - 23, providing short - term emotional support; overseas, Israel approved a Gaza cease - fire agreement. The supply of coke during the holiday was normal with no obvious inventory accumulation in most coking plants. The current iron - water output is 241.81 tons, a decrease of 0.55 tons, with high - level fluctuations. The total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 9 yuan/ton. Technically, the weekly K of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend. It is expected that the profit of coke has limited room for significant improvement, and the price of coking coal futures main contract will fluctuate between 1060 - 1220, while the coke futures main contract will fluctuate between 1590 - 1730 [7]. Group 2: According to the Table of Contents 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Macro: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20 - 23; relevant departments issued a price - governance announcement, and "Zhong Cai Wen" articles in People's Daily sent positive signals [7]. - Overseas: Israel approved a Gaza cease - fire agreement [7]. - Supply and Demand: Coke production was normal during the holiday, with no obvious inventory accumulation in most coking plants. The current iron - water output is 241.81 tons, a decrease of 0.55 tons, with high - level fluctuations. The total coke inventory is higher than the same period [7]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 9 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical: The weekly K of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [7]. - Strategy: The upcoming plenary session may support short - term sentiment. The demand for finished products in "Golden September" was average, and it is expected that "Silver October" will be no better than September, with a continuous decline in crude steel output. The coal inventory is expected to increase seasonally. The profit of coke has limited room for significant improvement. The price of coking coal futures main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1060 - 1220, and the coke futures main contract between 1590 - 1730 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of October 10, the position of coke futures contracts is 49,300 hands, a net increase of 781 hands; the 5 - 1 contract spread is 152.5, a net increase of 9 points; the warehouse receipt volume increased by 10 hands, and the screw - coke ratio decreased by 0.03 points [11][14]. - Spot Market: As of October 9, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port is 1430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the ex - factory price of coking coal at Ganqimao Port is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of October 10, the coke basis is - 224 yuan, a net increase of 76 points [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Coking Plant: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.95%, a decrease of 0.05%; the daily coke output is 52.86, a decrease of 0.03; the coke inventory is 42.54, an increase of 3.53; the total coking coal inventory is 819.32, a decrease of 69.15; the available days of coking coal are 11.7 days, a decrease of 0.98 days. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 9 yuan/ton, with different profits in different regions [32]. - Downstream: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 241.54 tons, a decrease of 0.27 tons from last week and an increase of 8.46 tons from last year. As of October 3, the total coke inventory is 891.07 tons, an increase of 0.15 tons from the previous period and an increase of 13.88% from the same period last year [36]. - Inventory Structure: The inventory of 18 ports is 252.59, a decrease of 4.00; the inventory of 247 steel mills: the daily coke output is 46.38, a decrease of 0.16; the capacity utilization rate is 85.53%, a decrease of 0.29%; the coke inventory is 650.82, a decrease of 12.58; the available days of coke are 11.42 days, a decrease of 0.18 days [40]. - Fundamental Data: From January to August, the cumulative coke export decreased by 20.0% year - on - year; the growth rate of steel export from January to August increased by 10.0% year - on - year. In August, the second - hand housing price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.60% month - on - month; as of the week of October 5, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 40.80% month - on - month and increased by 26.68% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities decreased by 33.72% month - on - month and increased by 56.20% year - on - year; that of second - tier cities decreased by 47.92% month - on - month and increased by 20.92% year - on - year [42][48][54].