螺纹热卷日报-20251010

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with overall weak spot trading volume of steel products, significantly weaker than yesterday. Some steel mills reduced production, and there was obvious inventory accumulation during the holiday, with a faster decline in apparent demand. After the holiday, steel prices are expected to remain at the bottom with limited downside. As the weather turns cooler, steel demand may recover. If downstream demand in October recovers more than expected, steel prices may rise further. Also, the "15th Five-Year Plan" content will affect market fluctuations. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is expected to widen due to low production, increasing rebar output before the holiday, and continuous reduction in hot-rolled coil output, with strong export performance [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Rebar Futures: RB05 was at 3159 yuan/ton (unchanged), RB10 at 3019 yuan/ton (-1), and RB01 at 3103 yuan/ton (+7). The 05 - contract rebar profit was -130 yuan/ton (-10), 10 - contract at -269 yuan/ton (-6), and 01 - contract at -151 yuan/ton (-6) [3]. - Rebar Spot: Shanghai Zhongtian was at 3220 yuan/ton (+10), Nanjing Xicheng at 3320 yuan/ton (+10), Shandong Shiheng at 3220 yuan/ton (+20), and Tangshan Tanggang at 3140 yuan/ton (unchanged). The cheapest delivery product was 3220 yuan/ton. Tangshan billet was at 2960 yuan/ton (unchanged), and East China scrap steel was at 2150 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: HC05 was at 3292 yuan/ton (-1), HC10 at 3406 yuan/ton (+36), and HC01 at 3285 yuan/ton (-1). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil profit was 3 yuan/ton (-11), 10 - contract at 118 yuan/ton (+31), and 01 - contract at 31 yuan/ton (-14) [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Spot: Tianjin Hegang was at 3290 yuan/ton (unchanged), Lecong Rigang at 3320 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Shanghai Angang at 3350 yuan/ton (unchanged). The cheapest delivery product was 3320 yuan/ton. Lecong Magang cold - rolled was at 3910 yuan/ton (-10) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - Related Prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was at 3220 yuan/ton (+10), Beijing Jingye at 3180 yuan/ton (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3290 yuan/ton (unchanged) [6]. - Trading Strategies: - Single - Side: Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Important Information: - During and after the holiday, with the continuous implementation of environmental protection restrictions, most steel mills tightened the sintering machine production restrictions from 30% to 40% - 50% [8]. - As of the week of October 9, building material production was 454.86 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.08 million tons; factory inventory was 488.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.81 million tons; social inventory was 572.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.62 million tons; apparent demand was 374.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 148.03 million tons [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes 31 figures showing various data such as rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2021 to 2025 [12][16][18].