假期经济谨慎乐观

Macro Overview - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding China's holiday economy, with moderate growth in consumption during the National Day holiday. Key trends include strong performance in green, smart, and experiential consumption [2][4] - Despite recent relaxations in real estate policies in first-tier cities, the real estate market remains weak, with a significant year-on-year decline in new and second-hand housing sales [3][6] - The report anticipates that core CPI and PPI growth will rebound, alleviating deflationary pressures, with liquidity conditions expected to remain loose for at least the next two quarters [2][7][8] Internet Sector - The online travel agency (OTA) sector shows resilience, with keywords "quality" and "long-distance travel" indicating strong demand. Long-distance travel bookings on Ctrip increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year [28][30] - During the holiday, Alibaba's Fliggy reported a 14.6% year-on-year increase in average transaction value, while Tongcheng Travel noted nearly 100% growth in outbound group travel bookings [28][31] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Ctrip (TCOM US) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) based on these positive trends [28] Consumer Discretionary - The report expresses a cautious outlook for retail sales growth during the 2025 National Day holiday, attributing potential risks to high base effects from 2024, lack of government subsidies, and ongoing macroeconomic pressures [32][35] - The report highlights a preference for consumer downgrade themes and high-dividend stocks, with concerns over profit margin pressures due to increased competition and discounting [32][35] Automotive Sector - The report notes a significant divergence in sales during the National Day holiday, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) outperforming traditional fuel vehicles. The introduction of popular NEV models is expected to drive order growth [6][32] - The forecast for national passenger vehicle retail and wholesale sales in 2025 has been slightly raised, reflecting better-than-expected sales in Q3 and potential pre-purchase demand for NEVs [6][32] Real Estate Sector - The report indicates that the effectiveness of real estate policies is diminishing, with a notable decline in sales volume for new and second-hand homes during the holiday period [3][6] - The report anticipates that further easing measures may be necessary to stimulate housing demand, as sales data remains weak despite policy support [3][6] Selected Stocks - The report identifies several preferred stocks, including Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US), Guoquan (2517 HK), Green Tea Group (6831 HK), Jiumaojiu (9922 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), Bosideng (3998 HK), and JS Global Life (1691 HK) [33][41]