银河期货航运日报-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC futures market is volatile, with some contracts down and some showing changes in volume and open interest. The spot price of SCFI European Line has rebounded, and shipping companies are starting to announce price increases for November. The market is concerned about the implementation of price increases and the impact of policies such as the US 301 port levy and China's special port fees for US ships [3][5]. - It is expected that the shipping company's freight rate center will move up in the second half of October. The demand side is experiencing a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the supply side has a decrease in capacity compared to the previous period. The upcoming price increase season from November to December and the implementation of port levy measures may bring cost increases and supply - chain disruptions [7][8]. - The progress of the cease - fire negotiation and resumption of flights in the Palestine - Israel conflict is expected to suppress the far - month contracts. The report provides trading strategies, including holding remaining long positions in EC2512, considering buying on dips for near - month contracts, and specific operations for arbitrage [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On October 10, the EC2512 closed at 1571 points, down 6.93% from the previous day. The latest SCFI European Line reported 1068 USD/TEU, up 10% month - on - month, ending a 9 - week decline. Shipping companies such as MSK and CMA have announced price increases for November [3][5]. - News Impact: China will collect special port fees for US ships starting from October 14, and the US will implement the "301 Clause" measures on Chinese ships on the same day, which may affect port costs and ship deployment [6][11]. - Container Shipment Volume: In August 2025, the container shipment volume from Asia to Europe was 1.85 million TEU, up 11.8% year - on - year; the shipment volume from Asia to North America was 2.014 million TEU, down 12.3% year - on - year; the shipment volume from Asia to the world was 10.529 million TEU, up 4.7% year - on - year; the global container shipment volume was 16.612 million TEU, up 2.8% year - on - year [6]. - Logic Analysis: Some shipping companies have raised freight rates in the second half of October, and it is expected that the freight rate center will move up. The demand side is experiencing a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the supply side has a decrease in capacity. The cease - fire negotiation in the Palestine - Israel conflict may suppress far - month contracts [7][8]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Remaining long positions in EC2512 can be held. Consider buying on dips for the near - month contract EC2512 and operate flexibly [9]. - Arbitrage: Take profit on the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage at high prices; hold the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage and add positions on dips [10]. Industry News - US Policy: The US will implement the "301 Clause" measures on Chinese ships from October 14, which is expected to disrupt the global shipping order and increase costs for enterprises and consumers [11]. - Maersk's Initiative: Maersk is collaborating with 50 shipowners to retrofit about 200 chartered ships to reduce emissions, fuel costs, and improve cargo - carrying capacity, with over 1500 projects completed and 1000 in progress, expected to finish in 2027 [12]. - Red Sea Situation: Israel and Hamas have reached a cease - fire agreement, but the agreement has details missing, and the Houthi armed forces will closely monitor its implementation [14].