Mai Gao Zheng Quan·2025-10-10 10:52Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1][60]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in civil aviation passenger traffic, with major airports seeing a notable rebound in international passenger flow [4][5]. - There is a sustained enthusiasm for domestic travel during holidays, with inbound tourism continuing to thrive [4][15]. - The service sector shows a positive trend, with service consumption and production indices on the rise [30][31]. Summary by Sections Civil Aviation Recovery - Civil aviation passenger volume is recovering, with August 2025 domestic passenger volume reaching approximately 75.36 million, a 3.3% increase from 2024 and a 23.1% increase from 2019 [8]. - The average domestic economy class ticket price in August 2025 was 694.1 yuan, down 1.0% from 2024 and 8.5% from 2019 [8]. - International passenger volume in August 2025 was about 7.47 million, a 15.3% increase from 2024 and a 6.5% increase from 2019 [10]. Domestic Travel Enthusiasm - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, an increase of 1.23 million from 2024, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up 1.08 billion yuan from 2024 [18]. - The average spending per trip during the holiday was 911 yuan, surpassing 2019 levels but slightly lower than 2023 [20]. - The average travel radius for tourists reached 212.66 kilometers, a 14.8% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing willingness to travel further [23]. Service Sector Performance - In August 2025, restaurant revenue grew by 2.1%, and retail sales increased by 3.6%, with the service production index rising by 5.6% [31]. - The service sector PMI remained above the threshold, recording 50.1% in September, indicating ongoing demand recovery [33]. - The total revenue of the service industry from January to July 2025 saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.4% [31]. Key Company Tracking - Ctrip's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 17.71 billion yuan, with a potential for valuation improvement compared to international OTA leaders [54]. - The report indicates a strong trend towards long-distance and cross-border travel, with significant growth in bookings for destinations beyond traditional hotspots [53]. - The average occupancy rate for star-rated hotels in Shanghai reached 71.90% in August 2025, recovering to 105.74% of 2019 levels [47].