正信期货玉米月报：国内玉米逐步上市，盘面延续弱势-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, corn prices dropped significantly. Internationally, the estimated production of new-season US corn continued to increase, and export demand was strong, leading to a volatile and slightly downward trend in US corn. Domestically, imported corn auctions continued in September, but the transaction rate was poor. The supply of new-season corn in production areas gradually increased, and the number of trucks arriving at Shandong processing enterprises was large, putting short-term pressure on domestic corn spot prices. In terms of demand, the inventories of feed and processing enterprises decreased seasonally, and enterprises were cautious about replenishing stocks before the large-scale listing of new grain, continuing to adopt a just-in-time procurement strategy. - As US corn is gradually harvested and enters the market, the futures market is expected to be volatile and weak. With the increasing supply of domestic new grain, corn spot prices will decline, and the short- and medium-term futures market is expected to be volatile and weak. In the long term, the quality of North China corn is poor, and there is support for the price of high-quality corn in the future. Coupled with the expected state reserve purchases stimulated by the large-scale listing of corn, the long-term corn price may first fall and then rise. In terms of operation, short-term unilateral short positions can be taken on the 01 contract, and timely profit-taking should be noted. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - As of the close on September 30, the CBOT12 corn closed at 416.00 cents per bushel, down 4 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.95%. The C2511 corn closed at 2143 yuan per ton, down 48 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 2.19%. [7] Fundamental Analysis International Market - Balance Sheet: The planting area was increased by 1.4 million acres to 98.7 million acres; the yield per acre was decreased by 2.1 bushels to 186.7 bushels per acre; the production was increased by 72 million bushels to 16.814 billion bushels; the export volume was increased by 100 million bushels to 2.975 billion bushels; the ending inventory was decreased by 7 million bushels to 2.11 billion bushels. [12][20][22] - Weather: In the next two weeks, there will be little rainfall and high temperatures in the US corn production areas. [12] - Growth: As of the week of September 28, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%, the same as the previous week, and higher than 64% in the same period last year. [12][26] - Harvest: As of the week of September 28, 2025, the US corn harvest rate was 18%, lower than the market expectation of 20%, up from 11% in the previous week, lower than 20% in the same period last year, and lower than the five-year average of 19%. [12][26] - Export: As of the week of September 18, the net export sales of US corn for the 2025/2026 season reached 1.923 million tons, up from 1.232 million tons in the previous week; the net sales of corn for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week. [12][30] Domestic Market - Feed Enterprises: As of September 25, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.01 days, down 0.15 days from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%. [12][34] - Deep - processing Enterprises: In September 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 4.5995 million tons of corn, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1201 million tons, a decrease of 19.58%; a year-on-year decrease of 423,100 tons, a decrease of 8.42%. As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.118 million tons, a decrease of 9.49%. [12][38][42] - Port Inventory: As of September 26, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 729,000 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons week-on-week. In Guangdong Port, the domestic trade corn inventory was 333,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 117,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 332,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 877,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week. [12][45] Spread Tracking - Not provided in the content