白糖月报：新旧榨季转换节点，供应端压力增加，全球糖市震荡偏弱-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - At the transition point between the old and new sugar crushing seasons, the pressure on the supply side is increasing, and the global sugar market is oscillating weakly. The international sugar price has hit the bottom several times. The short - term market trades on the accelerating production rhythm in Brazil. After the end of the Brazilian crushing season, when the market supply returns to being dominated by Asian producers, there will still be pressure on the market. The domestic market is dominated by the pricing logic of imported sugar and is expected to oscillate within a short - term range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - International Market: Since August, Brazil's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the gap in cumulative sugar production compared to the previous season has narrowed to 0.08%. Institutions expect an increase in sugar production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 crushing season. The good weather conditions lead to a high expectation of a bumper harvest. The short - term market has a strong bearish sentiment, and the international sugar price is under pressure. However, the narrowing of the sugar - ethanol price difference in Brazil provides some support for the price [5]. - Domestic Market: Since the end of September, sugar beet factories in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have started crushing, kicking off the 25/26 crushing season in China. In the previous season, the national sugar production increased by 12% year - on - year, and the sugar sales increased by 23% year - on - year, with a sales - to - production ratio of 89.6%. In August, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; the import of syrup and sugar premix was 32,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 238,500 tons. The price of imported sugar has declined, and the profit margin for out - of - quota imports has opened up. It is expected that imported sugar will continue to dominate the domestic market in October, suppressing the sugar price. After November, the main domestic production areas will start crushing, and attention should be paid to the crushing progress [5]. 3.2 Market Review - In September, the ICE raw sugar 03 contract and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract generally maintained an oscillating and weakening pattern [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Foreign: From August to the first half of September, Brazil's sugar production increased significantly year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio increased, and the sugar - crushing rhythm accelerated. The cumulative sugar production was slightly lower year - on - year. In September, both the sugar export volume and export price decreased. In the 25/26 crushing season, India has good weather conditions, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the expected export volume is higher than the previous period. Thailand also has good weather conditions, and it is expected to have a high - yield 25/26 crushing season, with an increase in the exportable volume [9]. - Supply - Domestic: As of the end of August, the total sugar production in the 24/25 crushing season in China was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Among them, the production of cane sugar was 9.63 million tons, and the production of beet sugar was 1.53 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 89.61% [28]. - Inventory - Domestic: As of the end of August, the new industrial inventory of sugar was 1.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan were 708,700 tons and 336,400 tons respectively [28]. - Spot - Domestic: In September, the spot price of white sugar decreased. As of September 30, the spot quotation in Liuzhou was 5,845 yuan/ton, in Kunming was 5,810 yuan/ton, and in Nanning was 5,780 yuan/ton. The spot index price of white sugar was 5,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [37]. - Import and Profit - Domestic: In August, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar and 32,300 tons of syrup and premix. In September, the price of imported sugar declined, the profit for out - of - quota imports was positive, and the imported sugar market had an advantage [36][42]. - Demand - Domestic: The consumption side is relatively stable. The production of sugar - containing downstream consumer goods has increased or decreased. In 2025, China's industrial sugar consumption is expected to be 8.586 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons compared to the previous year [44]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - No specific analysis content provided, only the topic of basis spread is mentioned [47]