国信期货生猪周报：供应压力大，猪价大幅走弱-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the opening of the two trading days saw a significant decline in live hog futures, with the main contract LH2511 dropping by 8.38%. The high supply pressure led to a sharp weakening of hog prices. In the short - term, the group farms' October slaughter plan increased significantly month - on - month, while smallholders may resist low prices and enter a phase of withholding hogs for sale, which could bring a window for a phased rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the increasing willingness to cull sows is beneficial for reducing future supply pressure. For futures, maintain a bearish view on the near - end contracts and pay attention to potential long - trading opportunities on the far - end contracts [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - After the holiday, live hog futures dropped significantly due to increased hog slaughter during the holiday, a sharp decline in the spot market, and a previously high premium in the futures market. As of Friday, the national average hog price dropped to 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.04 yuan/kg from before the holiday. In the future, the high hog slaughter volume within the year will limit the upside of hog prices. In the short - term, group farms plan to increase slaughter in October, while smallholders may withhold hogs after some inventory release. The increasing spread between fat and standard hogs and the expected consumption peak may bring a phased rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the increasing willingness to cull sows is beneficial for future supply [7]. 3.2. Live Hog Futures Market No detailed content provided other than the decline data of the main contract LH2511. 3.3. Live Hog Spot Market - The table shows the weekly changes in the average hog prices in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Henan, with a general downward trend [16]. 3.4. Live Hog Spot: Fat - Standard Hog Price Spread No relevant content provided. 3.5. Changes in Reproductive Sows No relevant content provided. 3.6. Changes in Piglets No relevant content provided. 3.7. Live Hog Inventory and Fattening Pig Feed Correlation No relevant content provided. 3.8. Live Hog Slaughter Situation No relevant content provided. 3.9. Live Hog Slaughtering Situation No relevant content provided. 3.10. Pork Consumption Situation No relevant content provided. 3.11. Frozen Meat Market Dynamics No relevant content provided. 3.12. Cost and Profit No relevant content provided. 3.13. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price drops, the national level does not start temporary reserve purchases for the third - level warning, may start for the second - level warning, and starts for the first - level warning. Local conditions are similar. In case of excessive price increases, for market cyclical fluctuations, central reserve releases start for the second - level warning and increase for the first - level warning. In case of special situations like major animal disease risks, after the first - level warning, releases are concentrated in key periods [68]. 3.14. Multi - Caliber Comparison No relevant content provided.