Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as thread [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with a certain upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, showing a slight upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★, with a certain upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, showing a slight upward - driving force but limited operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is mainly in a short - term shock state, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The iron ore market is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets may have a certain rebound due to the drive of coking coal [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - The trading floor fluctuated today. During the long holiday, the apparent demand for thread dropped significantly, and the output decreased slightly while the inventory accumulated greatly. The demand for hot - rolled coil also declined, with similar output and inventory changes. The molten iron output remained high, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The profit of steel mills declined, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. The PMI in September rebounded to 49.8, and the manufacturing industry showed marginal stability. The real - estate sales decline widened during the long holiday, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. Steel exports remained high, but the additional tariffs from the outside world brought some disturbances. After continuous adjustments, the trading floor stabilized slightly, but the rebound momentum was still insufficient, and it will mainly fluctuate in the short term [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor of iron ore rose today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month, while the domestic arrival volume rebounded, and the port inventory increased, especially the Brazilian ore. The molten iron output remained high with toughness, but the profitability of steel mills continued to weaken. Steel mills had a certain replenishment demand before and after the National Day, but as the profit of steel mills shrank and the domestic demand was still relatively low, the pressure of future production cuts gradually increased. There were still some policy expectations in the market, but the uncertainty of foreign trade frictions remained. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [2] Coke - The price fluctuated within the day. The first round of price increase in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. The profit level was average, the daily output decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. After the pre - holiday replenishment, the downstream was mainly consuming inventory, and the purchasing intention of traders was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level molten iron output supported the raw materials. The trading floor of coke had a slight premium, and due to the market's expectation of safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, the price was likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated within the day. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. The terminal inventory decreased, and the total inventory of coking coal decreased significantly month - on - month while the production - end inventory increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines actively reduced production efficiency, resulting in a decline in output. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level molten iron output supported the raw materials. The trading floor of coking coal had a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and due to the market's expectation of safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, the price was likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [5] Silicomanganese - The price fluctuated slightly within the day. The molten iron output remained high on the demand side. The weekly output of silicomanganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory did not accumulate. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the trading floor. Although the manganese ore inventory was accumulating, the speed was slow. Driven by coking coal, there might be a certain rebound in price [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated slightly within the day. The molten iron output remained high on the demand side. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon recovered to a high level, and the market's spot and futures demand was good, with a slight reduction in the on - balance - sheet inventory. Driven by coking coal, there might be a certain rebound in price [7]
黑色金属日报-20251010
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-10 11:45