Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook with low operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency with poor trading feasibility [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short-term equilibrium with low operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆, representing a bearish view with limited trading potential [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the energy market is bearish, mainly due to geopolitical risk mitigation and supply-demand imbalances [2][3][5] - The impact of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza on the market needs continuous attention, especially its influence on the Russia-Ukraine situation [2] Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.45% intraday [2] - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza eases geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2] - The marginal increase in surplus pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year remains the main trading theme, so a bearish approach is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The breakthrough in the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiation causes the decline of geopolitical risk premium, leading to the drop of crude oil and fuel oil prices [3] - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by damaged devices and refinery seasonal maintenance in the short term, but supply pressure may emerge in the medium term [3] - The high-sulfur marine fuel demand may be suppressed if the Red Sea resumes navigation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure and weak demand, with a loose supply-demand pattern [3] Asphalt - The latest inventory shows a slight increase in refinery inventory and a significant decrease in social inventory, with overall commercial inventory lower than before the holiday [4] - A refinery postponed its maintenance and started it from mid-October to mid-November [4] - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance and is under pressure due to the weakening cost end [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future production increase of OPEC+ intensifies the supply pressure of overseas associated gas [5] - The CP price cut in Saudi Arabia in October exceeds market expectations, leading to a decline in import costs [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand after the holiday [5] - LPG is under short-term pressure, and the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops needs attention [5]
国投期货能源日报-20251010
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-10 11:44