铝产业链周度报告-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices may maintain high - level volatility, but high prices may suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventories and macro - sentiment [62]. - Aluminum alloy shows strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Overseas political fluctuations increase the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US federal government's "shutdown" affects economic data release, and the ADP employment data shows a decline. The Fed has the intention to cut interest rates further, but is cautious due to inflation concerns. Attention should be paid to whether the US can release CPI data on October 15th and the resulting market sentiment [9][12]. - The domestic economy is slowly recovering. The manufacturing PMI in September increased slightly, and the consumer market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays showed good growth. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee may focus on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and become a new market focus [14][16]. - The supply of domestic bauxite has limited growth due to environmental constraints and declining ore quality. The import of bauxite from Guinea is expected to increase after the rainy season, while the import from Australia has decreased [17][18][21]. - The supply of alumina is expected to remain in surplus. Although the operating capacity has not increased significantly, the high production and low overseas prices have opened the import window, and the future surplus pressure may increase [23][24][26]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing decreased slightly in the first week of October, in line with seasonal characteristics. The output of aluminum products increased slightly in August, and the demand is in the transition period between the off - season and the peak season [29][30][32]. - The real estate market's sales and investment continued to decline in August, but the new policies in first - tier cities have supported the market demand to some extent. The investment, new construction, and completion are still under pressure [34][35]. - The new energy vehicle industry maintained strong growth in August, with both production and sales increasing significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [37][38]. - The inventories of domestic and overseas exchanges decreased. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased during the National Day holiday, and the domestic spot discount and LME aluminum premium both expanded [40][41][44]. - The output of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August, mainly due to the shortage of scrap and reduced procurement by traders. The operating rate of recycled aluminum has recovered recently, but the overall production is still affected by various factors. The import of aluminum alloy is expected to remain low in the fourth quarter, and the inventory has increased [48][49][59]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The expected increase in overseas supply is limited, and the social inventory continues to be at a low level [7]. - Bearish factors: The long - term upward trend of aluminum prices is not clear, and the overseas macro - environment is uncertain [7]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Bauxite: In 2025, from January to August, the domestic bauxite output was 4086.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The import volume was 14175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.4%, with a dependence of 78.4%. The import from Guinea increased by 38.5%, and the import from Australia decreased by 4.8% [18][21]. - Alumina: In August 2025, the output was 792.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The operating capacity increased, and the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged [24]. - Aluminum processing: In the first week of October, the overall operating rate of aluminum processing decreased to 62.5%. In August, the output of aluminum products was 554.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. From January to August, the output was 4379 million tons, basically the same as the previous year [30][32]. - Real estate: In August 2025, the single - month real estate sales area, investment, new construction area, and completion area decreased year - on - year, with the decline in sales expanding. The new policies in first - tier cities have supported the market demand, and the new construction and completion are still under pressure [35]. - Automobile: In August 2025, the production and sales of automobiles increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by more than 25% both month - on - month and year - on - year [38]. - Inventory: The LME aluminum inventory decreased to 508600 tons, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 0.83% to 123597 tons in the week of September 30th. As of October 9th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 63.4 million tons, an increase of 4.7 million tons compared with September 29th [41][44]. - Aluminum alloy: In August 2025, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy in August was 7.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%. As of October 10th, the weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 7.57 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons compared with the previous week, and the in - plant inventory was 6.15 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous week [49][55][59]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventories and macro - sentiment [62]. - Aluminum alloy shows strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [60].