Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by supply disturbances and macro - positive factors, the price of Shanghai nickel futures is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but the weak demand side may limit the upward space [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview and Market Review - 1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance - On October 9, 2025, the first trading day after the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the domestic base metals market witnessed an overall upward trend. The main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel showed strong performance, rising steadily after the opening and closing at 124,480 yuan/ton with a large positive line on the daily chart [2]. - 1.2 Futures Market Data - For the Shanghai nickel 2511 contract, the closing price was 12,448 points, with a rise of 2,900 points (2.39% increase), a trading volume of 13,086 lots, an amplitude of 1.31%, an open interest of 86,038 lots, and a daily increase in positions of 9,898 lots. - For the Shanghai nickel 2512 contract, the closing price was 12,466 points, with a rise of 2,940 points (2.75% increase), a trading volume of 56,031 lots, an amplitude of 2.42%, an open interest of 72,658 lots, and a daily increase in positions of 10,333 lots [5]. - 1.3 Spot Market Data - On October 9, the average spot price of electrolytic nickel was 123,600 yuan/ton, the average spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 124,825 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of imported nickel was 122,800 yuan/ton. The average transaction prices all increased by 1,150 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [6]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - Supply Side - After the holiday, the market was significantly affected by supply - side uncertainties, such as the fluctuating export quota policy of Indonesian nickel mines and the tight supply of recycled nickel raw materials, which pushed up prices. However, the new refined nickel production capacities at home and abroad were steadily released, resulting in relatively large supply pressure. As of October 9, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 236,892 tons, an increase of 4,260 tons from the previous trading day, and the Shanghai nickel futures inventory (warehouse receipts) was 24,817 tons, a decrease of 240 tons from the previous trading day, but the high - inventory state remained unchanged [6]. - Demand Side - Despite the price increase, the demand from downstream industries such as stainless steel and new energy had not significantly increased, and the overall market trading enthusiasm was relatively mild [6].
沪镍期货日报-20251010
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2025-10-10 11:56