烧碱期货日报-20251010

1. Report Overview - Research Variety: Caustic Soda [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Written Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoint - On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, caustic soda futures declined significantly due to the overall weakness of the chemical sector. During the holiday, the price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market decreased, and the trading volume fluctuated slightly. The market in other regions was also weak. Future market trends depend on the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory of chlor-alkali plants [12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market 4.1.1 Contract Market - On October 9, 2025, the main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, opened lower and continued to decline. The closing price was 2,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton or 2.58% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume increased by 117,000 lots to 291,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 18,857 lots to 103,000 lots [2] 4.1.2 Variety Price - Affected by the sluggish sentiment in the chemical market, all 12 caustic soda futures contracts declined. The near-month contract SH510 fell by more than 2.5%. The total open interest of the variety was 188,300 lots, an increase of 23,538 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, increased by 18,857 lots, and the capital inflow was 236 million yuan [4] 4.1.3 Related Market - The put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed better than the call options, with a significant increase in put option prices [6] - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong had minor adjustments of 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas, while most areas remained stable. The mainstream transaction prices of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in southwestern Shandong, central-eastern Shandong, and northern Shandong were 800 - 850 yuan/ton, 760 - 800 yuan/ton, and 780 - 850 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in central-eastern Shandong was 1,270 - 1,330 yuan/ton [7][8] 4.2 Influencing Factors 4.2.1 Industry News - On the first working day around the National Day, the price of liquid chlorine from Xinfa in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton [9] - In October, the purchase price of liquid caustic soda by alumina enterprises in Xiaoyi, Shanxi decreased by 200 yuan/ton [10] 4.2.2 Technical Analysis - The caustic soda futures closed with a long negative line today, and the price is approaching the previous low. The MACD indicator has further weakened [10]