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热点追踪周报:由创新高个股看市场投资热点(第214期)-20251010
Guoxin Securities·2025-10-10 12:55
  • The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot spots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, emphasizing stocks that consistently hit new highs. The formula for calculating the 250-day new high distance is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ represents the latest closing price, and $ ts_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it reflects the percentage drop from the peak [11][19][27] - The report evaluates the model positively, citing its ability to capture market leaders and trends effectively. It references studies by George (2004), William O'Neil, and Mark Minervini, which highlight the importance of tracking stocks near their 52-week highs for superior returns [11][18][21] - The model's backtesting results show that as of October 10, 2025, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others have respective 250-day new high distances of 0.94%, 2.70%, 1.97%, 2.00%, 1.49%, 2.61%, 4.55%, and 5.61%. Industry indices like power utilities, steel, and basic chemicals are closer to their 250-day highs, while sectors like food and beverage, banking, and transportation are farther away [12][13][31] - A factor named "Stable New High Stocks" is constructed to identify stocks with smooth price paths and consistent momentum. The factor considers analyst attention (minimum 5 buy/hold ratings in the past 3 months), relative price strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (measured by price displacement ratio), and trend continuation (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days). The top 50 stocks meeting these criteria are selected [25][27][28] - The factor is positively evaluated for its focus on smooth momentum and its ability to identify stocks with strong and consistent performance. It references studies by Turan G Bali (2011) and Da Gurun (2012), which highlight the advantages of smooth price paths in momentum strategies [25][27][28] - Backtesting results for the "Stable New High Stocks" factor show that 50 stocks were selected, with the highest representation in cyclical and technology sectors. Examples include Industrial Internet, Xiangnong Chip, and Xingye Yinxi. The cyclical sector is dominated by basic chemicals, while the technology sector is led by electronics [28][30][32]