国投期货软商品日报-20251010

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Timber: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the given star - rating description [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, production, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly and then fell back. New cotton pre - sale prices are lower than spot prices. Xinjiang cotton purchase prices first fell and then rose during the National Day. Normal - moisture cotton was mostly purchased at 6 - 6.2 yuan/kg, with higher prices at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. Pure cotton yarn prices are stable to weak, and the sales atmosphere is average. Since mid - September, the continuous decline of Zhengzhou cotton has negatively affected seed cotton purchase prices. There is a strong expectation of production increase in the new year, and demand remains weak. Macroscopically, pay attention to the Sino - US negotiations during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start sugarcane crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year due to good weather. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. In Guangxi, rainfall has been good since July, and the sugarcane vegetation index has increased year - on - year. The sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to maintain a weak fluctuation [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. New - season Red Fuji apples are gradually coming onto the market, but the listing progress is slow due to rainfall in the producing areas. The price of high - quality apples in the Northwest producing area is higher than the same period last year, and the spot market is bullish. However, the apple production in the 25/26 season is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers are more bullish, and the amount of apples left for harvesting has increased. The cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected, and the price faces upward pressure. Adopt a bearish strategy [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all declined, and market sentiment weakened. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable to weak, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price mostly rose. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise this week, with some plants under maintenance or low - load operation. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. During the National Day, tire companies had holidays, and the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly. After the holiday, tire companies are expected to resume production. Before the holiday, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 45.65 tons, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to decline to 1.18 million tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rose to 2.78 million tons. Overall, demand decreased during the National Day, supply pressure is high, and inventory reduction is difficult. Adopt a rebound strategy [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline, reaching a new low. The spot price of coniferous pulp was 5300 yuan/ton, and that of broad - leaved pulp was 4250 yuan/ton. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 203.3 million tons, a decrease of 7.9 million tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of broad - leaved pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. The domestic import inventory is high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. Downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Before the holiday, the arrival volume at ports increased. The price of New Zealand radiata pine in October was raised, but the domestic spot price was weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased. The overseas price is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to strengthen. The trader pressure has increased, and imports are not expected to increase significantly in the short term. Before the holiday, the port inventory decreased significantly, the peak - season demand began to appear, and inventory reduction was smooth. The original inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. Adopt a bullish strategy [8]