尿素月报：供应回归，需求支撑较弱-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the domestic urea market was in a pattern of supply surplus, with weak demand support. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The urea market remained in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation, and it was recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities after clear positive signals [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In September, it was the off - season for domestic agricultural demand. Although exports continued, they could not digest domestic production. Enterprise inventories continued to rise, the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged, the spot price continued to fall, the futures price fluctuated, and both the basis and the inter - month spread reached historical lows [12]. - Supply: In September, domestic urea production was 5.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. With the return of maintenance devices, the daily output returned to a year - on - year high level, and the supply pressure was high [12]. - Demand: In the off - season, the incremental demand mainly relied on exports. Exports increased significantly in August and were expected to remain at a high level in September. The production of compound fertilizers for autumn fertilizers began to decline, and the operating rate returned to a low level [12]. - Fundamentals: The spot price continued to decline, and both coal - based and gas - based production profits were at recent lows. The 1 - 5 spread reached a new low, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the market structure was weak. The export profit was at a high level, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued [12]. - Inventory: In September, enterprise inventories increased by 130,000 tons, and the latest inventory was 1.44 million tons, a year - on - year high. Port inventories declined from a high level, and the latest inventory was 415,000 tons [12]. - Strategy: It was recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when the price was low [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Changes: The prices of futures contracts such as 09, 01, and 05 all changed to varying degrees. The prices of domestic spot markets in Shandong, Henan, and other regions also declined. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizers and melamine decreased, and international prices generally declined [13]. - Basis and Spread: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 139, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 137. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and other regions also declined [13]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: The profit of fixed - bed production was at a low level compared to the same period, and the profit of gas - based production reached a new low in recent years [31]. - Inventory: After the holiday, enterprise inventories further increased, and port inventories declined from a high level [34]. 3.4 Supply Side - Capacity: There were planned production - expansion projects for urea, with some enterprises expected to put new production capacity into operation in 2024 - 2025 [45]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of urea production returned to a medium - high level. There were many device maintenance situations, including policy - based, cost - based, and routine maintenance [47][50]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption: The monthly consumption of urea showed certain seasonal characteristics. The operating rate of compound fertilizers declined, and the profit of compound fertilizer production also changed [56][58]. - Nitrogen Source Comparison: The ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate all changed [61]. - Melamine: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine all showed certain trends [64][66]. - Terminal Demand: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data, and real - estate transaction data all affected the demand for urea. The export profit of urea was good, and the export volume also changed [72][82]. 3.6 Option - related - The trading volume, open interest, and PCR indicators of urea options all changed, and the volatility of options also showed certain characteristics [93][95]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The report presented the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry characteristics through diagrams [106][108][110].