棉花月报：需求不振叠加套保压力，郑棉延续下跌-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the price of Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is more likely to be weak, with the lower cost support estimated to be around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton based on current machine - picked seed cotton and cottonseed prices [9][10] - The consumption demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season this year is weak, and the operating rates of the downstream industrial chain are significantly lower than in previous years. There is also an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new domestic cotton year, leading to high selling hedging pressure. For the outer market, due to the U.S. government shutdown, USDA data release is suspended, but according to the latest available data, the export pressure of U.S. cotton is relatively high [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review - Outer market: In September, the price of U.S. cotton futures fluctuated and declined. As of September 30, the closing price of the December contract of U.S. cotton futures was 65.72 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.81 cents/pound or 1.22% from the previous month. The spread between December and March contracts of U.S. cotton fluctuated, reporting - 1.8 cents/pound, an increase of 0.1 cents/pound from the previous month [9] - Domestic market: In September, the price of Zhengzhou cotton declined. As of September 30, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,025 yuan/ton or 7.2% from the previous month. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 466 yuan/ton from the previous month. The basis strengthened, reporting 1,643 yuan/ton, an increase of 515 yuan/ton from the previous month. The spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, reporting - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous month [9] - Industry Information - Outer market: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, USDA data release is suspended [9] - Domestic market: On October 8, the purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was 6 - 6.25 yuan/kg, and the price of cottonseed was 2,100 - 2,200 yuan/ton. As of the week of October 3, the operating rate of spinning mills was 66%, 6.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 9.46 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years; the operating rate of weaving mills was 37.7%, 15.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 15.66 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The weekly commercial inventory of cotton was 980,000 tons, 550,000 tons less than the same period last year and 390,000 tons less than the five - year average [9] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and U.S. cotton contract spreads, which can be used to analyze price differences and market trends [26][28][30] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - Production and Import - Domestic cotton production is presented through the processing and inspection quantity and total processing volume charts [39] - China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes are shown, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of cotton yarn [41][46] - The cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of U.S. cotton to China are also provided [44] - Downstream Operations and Sales - The operating rates of spinning and weaving mills are analyzed, showing a decline compared to previous years [49] - The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are presented [51] - Inventory - The weekly commercial inventory of cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are provided [54] - The raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills are also shown [56] 3.4 International Market Situation - United States - The planting situation is reflected by the proportion of non - drought - affected planting areas and the excellent - good rate [60] - The production situation is shown through the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes [62] - The production forecast and planting area are presented [65] - The export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are analyzed [68][70][71] - Brazil - The planting area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [73][76][78] - India - The planting area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are analyzed [81][84][86]