原油月报：OPEC原则性低速增产，原油测试挺价底部-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production, the increase is at a very low level. OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. The report maintains a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices. However, current oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall as a verification [16]. - In the medium - term, the report believes that the upside potential of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and grasping the driving rhythm will be more important [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: During the October holiday, international oil prices maintained a weak oscillation as OPEC slightly increased production again, and domestic oil prices started to make up for the decline after the holiday. Overall, there were no major contradictions in geopolitics and Middle - East supply, resulting in a weak oscillation pattern for crude oil [16]. - Supply - Demand Changes: OPEC held a "qualitative meeting" for the second - round production increase, with this round maintaining a principled increase of 137,000 barrels per day. U.S. refineries continued their seasonal decline. Affected by short - term factors in Russia, refined - oil crack spreads were at high levels. Overall, supply and demand were in a good state, and oil prices fluctuated within the short - cycle value upper and lower limits [16]. - Macro - Politics: At the macro level, the U.S. government shut down during the National Day holiday, and the release of CPI data was postponed. Politically, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that OPEC countries had not discussed increasing production quotas after November. The European Parliament sought to accelerate the phased - out of Russian oil and gas. In the United States, it was ruled that the large - scale offshore drilling ban during the Biden administration was illegal [16]. - Viewpoint Summary: The report maintains a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices but suggests short - term waiting and seeing, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall as a verification [16]. 3.2 Macro & Geopolitical - Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators: The report shows the relationship between indicators such as the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the U.S. 10 - year inflation expectation, and the U.S. long - short - term spread and WTI oil prices [40]. - Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators: It includes the relationship between the euro - zone investment confidence index, the U.S. investment confidence index, the U.S. GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast and relevant economic and oil - consumption indicators [43]. - Geopolitical Indicators: The report presents the relationship between the Middle - East geopolitical risk index and WTI oil prices, as well as the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil from countries such as Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia [46]. 3.3 Oil Product Spreads - Forward Curve: It shows the WTI crude - oil forward curve, the near - far structure of crude oil in various regions, the WTI crude - oil M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI crude - oil M1 price [51]. - Inter - Regional Spreads: It includes the price ratios of Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI [54][55]. - Product Spreads: It shows the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil, and the price ratios of RB/HO and LGO/RB [61][65]. - Crack Spreads: It presents the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the United States [69][72][75]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Supply: OPEC & OPEC+ - OPEC's Past Meeting Results: OPEC has implemented a series of production - reduction and production - increase measures since 2023, including extending production cuts, canceling production cuts, and increasing production step - by - step [81]. - OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary: It shows the crude - oil production and quotas of OPEC 9 countries, OPEC's idle crude - oil production capacity, OPEC & OPEC+'s unplanned shutdown production capacity, and the crude - oil production and quotas of OPEC+ 19 countries [83]. - OPEC 12 - Country Supply (Including Dynamic Forecast): It presents the crude - oil production and export volume forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and other countries [91][94][97]. - OPEC+ Major Member - Country Supply (Including Dynamic Forecast): It shows the crude - oil export volume forecasts of major OPEC+ member countries such as Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia [112]. - Supply: United States - The U.S. Treasury Department announced the harshest sanctions on Iran since 2018. The funds for SPR were significantly cut from $1.3 billion to $171 million. The U.S. has made a series of announcements and statements regarding international relations, energy policies, and sanctions [116][117].