橡胶月报：橡胶做多赔率较好-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current environment and commodity prices are similar to those during the 2016 commodity price increase, with significant increases in both the variety and magnitude of rising commodities and a wide - reaching impact [10]. - The report is bullish on rubber prices in the medium - term. As rubber prices have fallen significantly, supply has been curbed, and currently, the market is in a bottom - building phase. It is advisable to go long when the opportunity arises [10]. - The odds of going long on rubber prices are favorable, and if there are positive events, the probability of a rubber price rebound is relatively high [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti -内卷 policy had a significant impact and was considered a major macro - level bullish factor [10]. - On July 25, 2025, it was noted that rubber prices had risen significantly in the short - term, and there was a risk of a pullback [10]. - On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back most of their gains [10]. - From September 16 - 19, 2025, the report continuously reminded of the risk of a weakening bullish impact due to a marginal decrease in rainfall forecasts [10]. - On October 9, 2025, it was considered that most of the bearish factors had been released, and subsequent tracking of macro and weather dynamics would be important price drivers [10]. - The 62,000 - ton rubber reserve release on September 25, 2025, was judged to be a short - term bearish factor but a medium - term bullish factor as it was a replacement reserve [11]. - The postponement of the EUDR to 2026 would lead to a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which was a short - term bearish factor for demand [13]. - The market's bullish logic is mainly the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward movements in the second half of the year. The bearish reasons are the weak actual demand and the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies [18]. - In the short - term, rubber prices fell due to the 62,000 - ton reserve release and the EUDR postponement but have now stabilized. In the medium - term, the report is bullish on rubber prices, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 for potential band - trading opportunities [18]. 3.2 Cost End - The general market view is that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is between 30 - 35 Thai baht [57]. - The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is generally considered to be around 13,500 yuan [57]. - The cost of Yunnan full - latex rubber in China is generally considered to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [57]. - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When rubber prices are high, farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when prices are low, maintenance is reduced, and the cost decreases [57]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber prices follow a seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, prices declined earlier, and in 2023, rubber prices were lower than the industry's expectations and below farmers' costs for an extended period [30]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [35]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [38]. 3.4 Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹 steel, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index are generally normal, with no special values to note [45][49][53]. 3.5 Demand End - The operating rate of full - steel tire factories was 43.96% (- 21.76%) due to the National Day holiday, and the demand for full - steel tires is normal. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the expected demand has weakened [18]. - The sales of trucks and commercial vehicles are gradually improving, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [66][69]. 3.6 Supply End - Supply is generally normal, with no special values to note. In August 2025, rubber production was 1,078,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86% and a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. Cumulative production was 6,856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.76% [104]. - New production capacity of butadiene is expected to come on - stream in 2025, with a total increase of 113 tons, a 16% increase compared to 2024. This is expected to increase butadiene supply and decrease processing profits. However, the maintenance season in the fourth quarter will create upward price elasticity [22].