氧化铝月报：利空因素仍未反转，期价延续承压-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative factors affecting alumina prices have not reversed, and the futures prices continue to face pressure. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and pay attention to the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton, with a focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Futures Prices: As of October 10, the alumina index had fallen 5.52% from August 29 to 2861 yuan/ton. Multiple factors drove the futures prices down, but the decline in futures prices this month was less than that of spot prices due to cost support. The basis began to converge in September, and as of October 10, the Shandong spot price had a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable at - 25 yuan/ton [11][20]. - Spot Prices: Alumina production remained at a high level this month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on spot prices. Before large - scale production cuts, the oversupply situation is expected to persist. As of October 10, 2025, the spot prices in different regions had significantly declined compared to early September [11][18]. - Inventory: As of October 10, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 26 tons to 457.6 tons compared to early September. The alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased by 9.96 tons to 10.63 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse had increased by 8.74 tons to 20.66 tons [11][63][65]. 3.2期现端 (Spot and Futures End) - Spot Prices: Alumina production remained high, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, causing spot prices to decline. Before large - scale production cuts, the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse. As of October 10, 2025, the spot prices in different regions had dropped significantly compared to early September [18]. - Futures Prices: As of October 10, the alumina index had fallen 5.52% from August 29 to 2861 yuan/ton. Multiple factors drove the futures prices down, but the decline in futures prices was less than that of spot prices due to cost support. The basis began to converge in September, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable [20]. 3.3原料端 (Raw Material End) - Bauxite Prices: In September, the bauxite price in Henan decreased slightly by 15 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. As of October 10, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 73 dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton [25]. - Bauxite Production: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The total production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28%. Domestic bauxite production decreased due to the rainy season and environmental policies [27]. - Bauxite Imports: In August 2025, bauxite imports were 18.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. The total imports in the first eight months were 141.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38%. China imported 1233 tons of bauxite from Guinea in August, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 22.68%. The cumulative imports from Guinea in the first eight months were 107.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.74% [29][32]. - Bauxite Inventory: As of October 3, 2025, the global bauxite shipments from major countries remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory reached a new high of 29.98 million tons this year, indicating sufficient ore supply. In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons to 52.27 million tons, still at a near - five - year high [35][37]. 3.4供给端 (Supply End) - Alumina Production: In August 2025, alumina production was 7.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.53% and a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. The cumulative production in the first eight months was 59.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.45% [40]. - New Alumina Production Capacity: In the first half of the year, projects were successfully put into production and gradually released output. The Guangxi Guangtou project is expected to be put into production in the third quarter. The new production capacity in the fourth quarter is uncertain, and the Oriental Hope project is expected to be postponed to January 2026 [43]. - Alumina Smelting Profits: Alumina spot prices continued to decline, putting pressure on smelting profits. As of October 10, the production profit in Guangxi was 370 yuan/ton, while the profits in Shandong using Australian and Guinean ores were 50 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively. The use of Guinean ore in Shanxi and Henan would result in losses [45]. 3.5进出口 (Imports and Exports) - Alumina Imports and Exports: In August 2025, alumina had a net export of 86,000 tons. The import volume decreased from 126,000 tons last month to 94,000 tons, and the export volume decreased from 229,000 tons to 181,000 tons. The cumulative net export in the first eight months was 1.265 million tons. With the recent opening of the import window, the import volume in September and October is expected to gradually increase, potentially exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [48]. - Alumina Import Window: As of October 10, the Australian FOB price had decreased by 38 dollars/ton to 324 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 6 yuan/ton. The release of new overseas production capacity drove the spot price down, opening the import window [51]. 3.6需求端 (Demand End) - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The total production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [55]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Operation: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.35% to 97.47% [58]. 3.7库存 (Inventory) - Alumina Social Inventory: As of October 10, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 26 tons to 457.6 tons compared to early September, with increases in various types of inventory [63]. - Alumina Futures Warehouse Receipts and Delivery Warehouse Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse had increased by 87,400 tons to 206,600 tons. As the market supply of spot goods gradually loosened, the registration volume of warehouse receipts gradually recovered [65].