Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Industrial silicon [1] - Report Cycle: Daily report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The industry is in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but inventory depletion has significantly slowed down, and there are signs of inventory accumulation, indicating that the fundamentals have turned loose. Considering the different supply changes in the two major production areas and the uncertainty of the demand for polysilicon in the core consumption direction, there is no obvious unilateral driver in the market, and the futures price may fluctuate around the cost line [10]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - Contract Market: On October 9, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract rose and then fell, closing with a negative line. The trading volume decreased significantly, with a full - day trading volume of 210,531 lots and an open interest of 176,563 lots [2]. - Variety Price: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 407,790 lots, an increase of 8,057 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 2,165 lots [4]. 4.2 Influencing Factors - Industry News: In the southwest production area, as the wet season is coming to an end, the smelting electricity price is facing an increase, leading to higher production costs. In the north production area, the electricity price is relatively stable throughout the year due to the use of coal - fired power. After the anti - involution, the profit is acceptable. Against the background of the planned production cut in the southwest, large factories in Xinjiang may have the expectation of further increasing production, which makes the market worried that the supply is unlikely to decline significantly [6]. - Technical Analysis: The industrial silicon futures rose and then fell today. The main 2511 contract formed a doji pattern with long upper and lower shadows. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly. Both the long and short sides continued to wait and see. From the daily chart, the futures price formed a doji pattern with long upper and lower shadows below the 50 - day moving average. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly in the future [7]. 4.3 Market Outlook - The industry is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but inventory depletion has slowed down, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. The fundamentals have become looser. Given the different supply changes in the two major production areas and the uncertain demand for polysilicon, there is no clear one - way driving force in the market, and the futures price may fluctuate around the cost line [10].
工业硅期货日报-20251010
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2025-10-10 14:07