沪铜日评：美元指数走强扰动铜价上涨节奏-20251010

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The strengthening of the US dollar index may slow down the upward pace of Shanghai copper prices, despite expectations of Fed rate cuts, fiscal easing in multiple countries, and disruptions in overseas copper mine production. Pre - existing long positions should be held cautiously, or new long positions can be established after price corrections. Attention should be paid to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - Shanghai Copper Futures: On October 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,750, up 3,640 from the previous period. The trading volume was 137,816 lots, a decrease of 18,253 lots. The open interest was 221,715 lots, an increase of 7,856 lots. The inventory was 29,703 tons, an increase of 2,880 tons. The Shanghai copper basis was - 1,010, a decrease of 1,140 [2] - SMM Copper - related Prices: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 85,740, up 2,500. The average price of SMM flat - copper premium/discount was - 5, an increase of 25. The average price of SMM premium - copper premium/discount was 80, an increase of 10 [2] - London Copper: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on October 9, 2025, was 10,776.5, up 75.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 24.9, an increase of 4.62. The LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 94.17, an increase of 24.45 [2] - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on October 9, 2025, was 5.14, up 0.051. The total inventory was 661,883, an increase of 4,585 [2] 2. Important Information - It is expected that by 2025, the top 20 global copper mines will contribute about 36% of global production, but most mines face geological, operational, and social challenges. BMI has significantly raised the forecast of the copper supply gap in 2026 from 72,000 tons to 400,000 tons. Citibank warns that if copper prices cannot effectively stimulate new production capacity, a supply shortage may occur in 2027 [2] 3. Long - Short Logic - Supply Side: There are disruptions in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index, tightening the supply - demand expectations of domestic copper concentrates. The expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to a slight increase in the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2] - Demand Side: The sharp rise in copper prices has made downstream buyers purchase mainly based on rigid demand [2] - Inventory Side: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2] 4. Trading Strategy - Hold pre - existing long positions cautiously or establish new long positions after price corrections. Pay attention to the support level of 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level of 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level of 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper, and the support level of 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2]