同业存单的“预算线”

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [7] Core Insights - The report focuses on the treasury behavior of banks, explaining the "budget line" logic of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) and reviewing historical patterns to assist investors in assessing the interest rate levels of interbank CDs from a different analytical perspective [2][12]. - The "three principles" for issuing interbank CDs are: meeting regulatory indicators, ensuring safety of reserves, and balancing costs. These principles are dynamic and adjust according to market conditions and the bank's operational status [3][14]. - The average liability cost rate of state-owned and joint-stock banks serves as the "budget line" for pricing interbank CDs, with a focus on controlling costs and avoiding significant increases in financial expenses [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Logic of the "Budget Line" for Interbank CDs - The issuance of interbank CDs is primarily based on three principles: indicators must meet standards, reserves must be safe, and costs must be balanced. The emphasis on these principles can shift based on market conditions [3][14]. - As of September, the total balance of OMO, MLF, and MDS approaches 14 trillion, indicating a generally friendly attitude from the central bank towards liquidity [3][28]. - Treasury departments typically set the issuance rate of 1Y interbank CDs not to significantly exceed the average liability cost rate of the bank [30]. 2. Historical Review and Outlook of the "Budget Line" for CDs - From 2019 to the present, the 1Y interbank CD interest rate has generally formed a corridor with the 1Y MLF rate as the upper limit and the average liability cost rate as the lower limit. However, since Q2 2024, the interest rate has trended below the average liability cost rate [5][35]. - The decline in the average liability cost rate's lower limit function is attributed to the continuous decline in bank interest margins and the emergence of a trend where interest margins fall below non-performing loan rates [5][36]. - By H1 2025, the average liability maintenance rate for state-owned and joint-stock banks, excluding Postal Savings and China Merchants Bank, is projected to be 1.71%, indicating that the current 1Y interbank CD rate aligns closely with the "budget line" [6][42].