Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: Polyester Monthly Report - Ethylene Glycol Inventory Accumulation Gradually Realized, PX Continuously Suppressed by Downstream [1] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Views - PX: Last month, the overall industry contradiction was not obvious. PTA's processing fee was continuously restricted under weak expectations. High maintenance volume and weak terminal expectations led to the difficulty of PXN expansion, and it followed the weak oscillation of crude oil. Currently, PX load remains high, while downstream PTA has many short - term unexpected maintenance, with a low overall load center. The expected postponement of PTA new device production and PX maintenance is expected to continue the PX inventory accumulation cycle. PXN is under pressure, but the valuation is currently at a neutral - low level, and the downward space is also limited. Short - term observation is recommended [11]. - PTA: Last month, its own processing fee improved under continuous large - scale maintenance. However, due to the suppression of PXN by its maintenance and the still pessimistic expectation of the terminal, it mainly followed the downward oscillation of crude oil. In the future, the supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory reduction pattern continues. But due to the weak long - term pattern, the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester chemical fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, while the terminal shows signs of weakness. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously affected by the weak terminal performance, and PTA is continuously suppressed by unexpected maintenance under low processing fees. The upward valuation needs to be driven by continuous improvement of the terminal to further repair the PTA processing fee or the improvement of the PX supply - demand pattern. Short - term observation is recommended [12]. - MEG: Last month, after the news of new device production, with the expectation of subsequent import increase and port inventory accumulation, the valuation was compressed, and the disk oscillated weakly. In terms of industrial fundamentals, the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, the domestic supply is high, the import volume is increasing, and the port inventory is turning to accumulation. In the medium term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected continuous high domestic load, coupled with the gradual production of new devices, it is expected to continue inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high compared to the same period, and there is pressure for continuous compression under the weak pattern. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies [13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX: The price oscillated downward last month. As of October 9, the closing price of the 11 - contract was 6,586 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 224 yuan; the PX CFR price was 809 US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 29 US dollars. The end - of - month load in China was 87.4%, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the Asian load was 79.9%, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The PTA load at the end of the month was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The social inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 19,000 tons. It is expected to continue the inventory accumulation pattern in October. The PXN decreased by 11 US dollars last month [11]. - PTA: The price oscillated downward last month. As of October 9, the closing price of the 01 - contract was 4,584 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 148 yuan; the East China spot price was 4,500 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 120 yuan. The end - of - month load was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. As of September 26, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.107 million tons, a year - on - year inventory reduction of 13,000 tons. It is expected to continue inventory reduction in October. The spot processing fee increased by 32 yuan year - on - year [12]. - MEG: The price oscillated downward last month. As of October 9, the closing price of the 01 - contract was 4,158 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 173 yuan; the East China spot price was 4,224 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 190 yuan. The EG load at the end of the month was 75.1%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. As of October 9, the port inventory was 507,000 tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 48,000 tons. It is expected that the port inventory will enter the inventory accumulation cycle in October. The naphtha - based profit decreased by 66 yuan to - 645 yuan/ton [13]. 4.2 Futures and Spot Market - PX: The basis oscillated weakly, and the spread was weak. The position declined, and the trading volume was low [32][35]. - PTA: The basis was weak, and the spread weakened [44]. - MEG: The basis stabilized after a decline, and the spread oscillated weakly. The position was at a low level, and the trading volume decreased [59][66]. 4.3 PX Fundamentals - Capacity: In 2025, Yantai Yulongdao in China is expected to add 3 million tons of new capacity in the second half of the year [79]. - Supply: The end - of - month load in China was 87.4%, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the Asian load was 79.9%, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 379,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [11]. - Demand: The PTA load at the end of the month was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. It is expected to maintain a relatively high maintenance volume in October, and the load will be relatively stable [11]. - Inventory: The social inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 19,000 tons. It is expected to continue inventory accumulation in October [11]. - Cost - profit: PXN oscillated weakly, and the short - process profit declined. The gasoline performance in aromatics blending was neutral, the octane value showed certain characteristics, the US - South Korea aromatics spread strengthened, and the South Korea aromatics inventory and trade had corresponding changes [97][104]. 4.4 PTA Fundamentals - Capacity: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 are expected to add new capacities [128]. - Supply: The end - of - month load was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. It is expected to maintain a relatively high maintenance volume in October, and the load will be relatively stable [12]. - Demand: The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The terminal showed signs of weakness [12]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.107 million tons, a year - on - year inventory reduction of 13,000 tons. It is expected to continue inventory reduction in October [12]. - Profit - valuation: The processing fee improved slightly [138]. 4.5 MEG Fundamentals - Capacity: In 2025, Yulong Petrochemical 1 and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) are expected to add new capacities [142]. - Supply: The EG load at the end of the month was 75.1%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume in September was expected to be 600,000 tons, with the same year - on - year expectation. The short - term arrival volume increased, and the import volume in October was expected to increase [13]. - Demand: The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The terminal showed signs of weakness [13]. - Inventory: As of October 9, the port inventory was 507,000 tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 48,000 tons. It is expected that the port inventory will enter the inventory accumulation cycle in October [13]. - Cost - profit: Coal prices rebounded slightly, ethylene prices declined, and the valuation was neutral - high [167][170]. 4.6 Polyester and Terminal - Polyester: New polyester filament devices were put into production. The basis of short fibers and bottle chips oscillated. The start - up rate remained high. The export data in August increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The filament inventory pressure was small, the short - fiber inventory declined, and the bottle - chip inventory pressure was relieved. The filament profit was low, while the bottle - chip and short - fiber profits improved [186][190][192]. - Terminal: The start - up rate was continuously weak year - on - year. Textile enterprise orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory preparation was weak. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing rebounded, while exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally [213][220][225].
聚酯月报：乙二醇累库逐渐兑现，PX持续受下游压制-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-10 14:35